SHADES OF WHAT'S AHEAD

Halloween is behind us, Thanksgiving is ahead, and that means it's November. One of the bigger transitional months, average high temperatures drop about 15 degrees from the 1st to the 30th. In Dubuque, highs start around 52 and dive to 37 by month's end. Average lows start at 34 and crash to 22 just 29 days later

There are usually a couple of days with at least measurable snow in November, with average amounts ranging from 2.8 inches up north in Dubuque to less than an inch in the far south. The only cities the NWS posts snowfall data records for are Dubuque and Moline. While multiple years have not had snow in November, the most in Moline fell in 2018 when 18.4 inches was measured, largely due to a big post Thanksgiving storm. In Dubuque, the snowiest November was 13.9 inches in 1986.

I spoke to the climate guru, Steve Gottschalk in Lowden, and he says that in his 65 years of records, the November day with the best chance of seeing snow is the 30th (18%), followed by the 27th at (17%). Odds of snow on the 26th are just 12%, but the average amount is the greatest that day at 2.1". The 13th with a 9% chance also averages 2.1 inches. Thanks to Steve, we've been given the 4 days of the month that have the best chance of seeing the white stuff.

With even colder temperatures, snow chances pick up in December, with odds as high as 40% the 28th with an average of 1.9 inches. The 20th is 29% but the average amount increases to 2.6 inches.

This is the average Iowa snowfall for the 2 months of November and December combined over the 30-year period 1991 through 2020.

Shifting gears, it was a very mild October across the state of Iowa. The average temperature of 142 reporting stations came out to 57.27 degrees. That's 5 degrees above the statewide average of 52.30. The average temperature for the 31 days (highs and lows combined) fell into the range of 53 to 62.

VISIT US AT MY 5-STAR GALENA AIRBNB.

My 5-STAR AIRBNB just outside of Galena is a premier Midwest destination and a guest favorite! We take pride in our perfect rating, amenities and cleanliness. Take advantage of our fall and winter specials and instantly save $200. Book directly with us and eliminate AIRBNB fees and additional costs that will save you cash. Other discounts apply. Call or text Carolyn at 563-676-3320 for our best deals of late fall and early winter. See more at https://www.littlewhitechurchgalena.com/

A FRESH START TO NOVEMBER

While it won't last long, the month of November is going to get off to a raw start around the region thanks to a pocket of cold air associated with a passing upper air low. You can watch is spin southeast over Iowa Saturday in this animation.

The satellite also shows the spin and lobes of vorticity rotating around the circulation, which at this time was centered over Minnesota.

When that circulation is overhead late Saturday morning, the HRRR shows 850 temps (a mile up) at -6 C. near Burlington, Iowa. That is pinpointing the coldest air aloft, diving SE with the upper air low.

The combination of lift from the vorticity and instability from the cold air aloft at 850mb., will produce clouds, breezy conditions, raw temperatures, and scattered showers Saturday. At noon, the GFS shows readings only in the range of 40-45 degrees.

Any showers Saturday are likely to light, brief, and of the hit-and-miss variety. The key ingredient missing, and it’s a big one, is moisture. Precipitable moisture is at best 4/10ths of an inch, and that won't cut it for much in the way of rain. That said, most spots will likely see some showers, at the very least sprinkles. The most likely time would be during the late morning into early evening. With such cold air aloft, it is possible a few snowflakes could mix in at times, but it's a marginal set-up and unlikely in most spots. Guidance is showing rainfall totals of .01 to .03 inches or less. That would barely wet the pavement.

The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR

The 3K NAM

For the most part, next week looks uneventful, with the storm track aligned west to east across the northern tier of the nation. A couple of weak moisture starved waves will streak across the upper Midwest, but what light precipitation is generated should remain north of my local area until Thursday night or early Friday. At that time, at least some light rain would be a possibility. With fronts coming and going, pressures will be fluctuating significantly, leading to a breezy week ahead.

The ensembles of both the EURO and GFS are still showing little in the way of cold air through mid-November, so no changes there. Here's what they indicate for temperatures through the 16th. Fairly consistent with the trends, which correlates well with a mild phase 6 MJO.

The EURO

Something I will be watching for by Thanksgiving is if the MJO can rotate further west out of the western Pacific into the western hemisphere as a whole. That would take it from phases 6 to 7 and perhaps lead to a full cycle through the colder phases of 1 and 2. If we are going to get into winter in any serious way, that needs to happen. After November 15th, both the GFS and EURO are showing a flip in the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) from positive to negative, which in theory opens the door for a colder pattern by Thanksgiving. Time will tell.

With that, I'm watching temperatures inch into the 30s late Friday night, setting us up for what promises to be a crisp day Saturday. The coat will be in order. Roll weather...TS