SHOW ME THE RAIN...
Before we get to the meat and potatoes of the forecast, it's worth mentioning the chill that descended over the Midwest early Friday. Lows were in the upper 40s to low 50s, quite impressive for July 7th. So cool in fact that Cedar Rapids and Lowden (in Iowa) both had record lows of 47. Forest City up in NC Iowa plunged to 43! Here's a sampling of temperatures around 6:00am Friday morning. Fresh!
HOW ABOUT THAT RAIN MACHINE
The rain machine has been up and running for some the past week, not so much for others in the north where severe drought continues to rage. Here's the rainfall percent of normal over the past 7 days. Quite the range from north to south.
Our latest rain maker is on its way out Saturday morning after producing some additional showers and a few storms. The north once again had little to show for rain but the south, especially near and south of a line from Burlington to Monmouth and on east of Galesburg was back in the saddle with more soaking rains. In some places amounts of 1-2 inches plus were noted. These are Doppler estimates through 2:00am Saturday.
Any lingering showers will end over the SE early Saturday and clouds will decrease. That sets the table for a decent weekend of weather with highs near 80 Saturday and the low to mid 80s Sunday (below normal).
Next week the pattern begins to undergo a major shift from a highly amplified NW flow to more of zonal west to east component as a heat dome attempts to expand into the Midwest. The NW flow appears to be in a position where ridge riding disturbances can swing into the Midwest producing regular rain opportunities. Then, as the heat dome expands the region comes under the influence of a "the ring of fire pattern" that brings with it nocturnal thunderstorm complexes that often produce significant rain. It's a typical summertime set-up for us in July. The big unknown is precisely where the thermal gradient sets up that focuses storm development. The bottom line is the central U.S. appears to be ripe for a relatively wet 2 week period of weather with above normal rainfall. The GFS shows all of eastern Iowa and most of Illinois with positive rainfall departures of 1-4 inches through July 23rd. It's been a long time since I've seen that.
The EURO control is displaced a bit further south than the GFS but still shows that firing zone very close to the area.
You never want to count your chickens before they are hatched but I am the most optimistic I've been since March on a 1-2 week pattern with above normal rainfall. Fingers crossed.
As early as this coming Tuesday and Wednesday a nice set-up is shown with a couple of disturbances ahead of a slowly sinking cold front. Take a look at what models are suggesting for rainfall out of that scenario.
The GFS
The EURO
In closing, signals are also there for some heat to make it into the central Midwest around July 18th. These are the temperature departures the GFS shows July 20th. Some areas more than 20 degrees above normal!
Some pretty mean heat index values accompany the warmth (if it happens).
I'm not as confident about the extent and intensity of the heat as I am of the potential for above normal rainfall. Most certainly, there are some new items in the menu to feed me in the coming days! Roll weather...TS
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