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The latest trends are showing more phasing and intensification of an upper air feature that will cross the central Midwest tonight. That is significant in that it has pulled the system further west and as a result accumulating snow will back into SE Iowa and most of Illinois. Here's the system looking pretty healthy on the water vapor imagery.

There are currently winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings out for much of the eastern half of the nation. These extend into west-central Illinois and extreme SE Iowa, just southeast of the Quad Cities.

The question now is how much snow falls and how far west. The official NWS forecast shows the 1 inch line southeast of Freeport back near Iowa City and Washington. The range in the Quad Cities is a trace to 2 inches.

As you can see below the latest model guidance is higher and further west. The average of 6 models in the Quad Cities yields a 4 inch snow. As far west as Iowa City the average is close to 2". Little if any accumulation is noted NW of a line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. Chicago really gets hammered as lake enhanced snowfall could accumulate more than a foot in spots.

In my area it looks like the heaviest snows will fall east of a line from Mt. Pleasant to the Quad Cities and then northeast to near or just SE of Sterling/Rock Falls. 3 to 4" total are likely here and in the far eastern parts of the region perhaps as much as 6 inches could fall. Here's the latest snowfall depictions from the morning model runs.


The 3K NAM

The 12K NAM


The Canadian GEM

I would not be surprised to see the NWS push advisories west into SE and EC Iowa. East and south of the Quad Cities this is a high end advisory (close to warning status. Travel is going to get difficult late this afternoon and especially this evening as snow develops and quickly accumulates on the very cold surfaces. This will be a very powdery snow so at least it will be light to shovel. That's the latest. I'll update things this evening as the event unfolds. Roll weather...TS



The second printing of my new book Derecho, Iowa's Inland Hurricane has just arrived and can be purchased below. However they are going fast and if you are interested in having the most authoritative account of this extreme event you need to act now. Don't miss this opportunity to own the weather story of a generation. You can order yours at See the book endorsements below


*This book has been quite the talk with the Iowa State Library promoting it. I have never seen the State Library promote any books like this unless it was an award winner of particular interest to libraries. Hopefully your sales are through the roof!

Jolene Kronschnabel-Director of Hawkins Memorial Library, La Porte City, Iowa

*I ordered one of your Derecho books about the storm in Cedar Rapids, IA back in December. I love it! I had also bought one that the Cedar Rapids Gazette sold. Your book by far is so much better, you have a lot more pictures and it just tells more of the story. Thank you for putting a wonderful keepsake together! Do you have any left? If so can you tell me how to get at least one more.

Thank you so much! Penny Brecke

*Hi Terry and Carolyn!

Thank you for my book, the kind dedication and wonderful job on the book warmed my heart!! Loved all the info-great job Terry! Carolyn the stories brought tears to my eyes. I have to admit it was difficult to read at first-reliving that day, but joy also with the way you wrote them in such good faith! We are living in town as our house is still gutted. Work is slow but progressing. The damage was far greater than we thought, but it will be glorious again one day! Love and prayer.

Jenny Janssen

*I received my book yesterday (just in time for Christmas). Thank you for all the hard work it took to put it together and trying so hard to get this book out. My husband will love it. Enjoyed your Christmas Video.

Karleen Booth

*Got the book today and am reading it now! Very well done. Thanks.

Jack Wiley


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