SNOW CREEPS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR SOME...
The latest trends are showing more phasing and intensification of an upper air feature that will cross the central Midwest tonight. That is significant in that it has pulled the system further west and as a result accumulating snow will back into SE Iowa and most of Illinois. Here's the system looking pretty healthy on the water vapor imagery.
There are currently winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings out for much of the eastern half of the nation. These extend into west-central Illinois and extreme SE Iowa, just southeast of the Quad Cities.
The question now is how much snow falls and how far west. The official NWS forecast shows the 1 inch line southeast of Freeport back near Iowa City and Washington. The range in the Quad Cities is a trace to 2 inches.
As you can see below the latest model guidance is higher and further west. The average of 6 models in the Quad Cities yields a 4 inch snow. As far west as Iowa City the average is close to 2". Little if any accumulation is noted NW of a line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. Chicago really gets hammered as lake enhanced snowfall could accumulate more than a foot in spots.
In my area it looks like the heaviest snows will fall east of a line from Mt. Pleasant to the Quad Cities and then northeast to near or just SE of Sterling/Rock Falls. 3 to 4" total are likely here and in the far eastern parts of the region perhaps as much as 6 inches could fall. Here's the latest snowfall depictions from the morning model runs.
The 3K NAM
The 12K NAM
The Canadian GEM
I would not be surprised to see the NWS push advisories west into SE and EC Iowa. East and south of the Quad Cities this is a high end advisory (close to warning status. Travel is going to get difficult late this afternoon and especially this evening as snow develops and quickly accumulates on the very cold surfaces. This will be a very powdery snow so at least it will be light to shovel. That's the latest. I'll update things this evening as the event unfolds. Roll weather...TS
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