SNOW THREAT MOUNTS

A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....

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SNOW NUMBERS REMAIN HEALTHY

The morning runs of the models continue to point to a snowy period ahead beginning this Wednesday. That's when the first of what should be multiple snow systems moves across the central Midwest. All told, up to 4 systems of varying strength are indicated the 12th through the 23rd. The sum of the individual storms yields snowfall totals that look like this across the nation on the GFS and EURO.

The GFS

The EURO

The first event later Wednesday gets things off to a fast start with a surface low chugging up the Ohio Valley.

Another strong system is indicated Saturday the 15th with 2-3 smaller events bunched around them.

The ensembles of the EURO and GFS show this for total snow through the 23rd. Remember, ensembles have many members, each with somewhat different input. Some may show 15 inches and others 1 or 2. In the end, the data is averaged or smoothed and this is what you get. These are hefty amounts for ensembles.

The GFS ensemble

The EURO ensemble

The operational runs, focused on one single run, are more localized and specific. That does not mean they are better, since the track could still fluctuate a bit. You will notice the numbers are higher, primarily due to the fact snow ratios are considered that will be greater than the 10:1 ratio of the ensembles. Also, these are exceptional numbers, especially the GFS. Rarely do these ever pan out in the end, as we get closer to the event they tend to shrink. Also, with the tracks not firmly set yet, shifts up or down are quite likely that can alter amounts accordingly. I'm feeling pretty good about the potential for heavy snow from the Wednesday storm, but confidence lowers after that. LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR. This is just raw model output. It's not a forecast. It's the guidance the forecasts will eventually be made from. Right now, the value is in defining trends and locations of snow bands. These amounts are going to change in coming runs. Hopefully not dramatically. The GFS, as it was last night, is just dreamy. I am not on board with its totals yet.

The EURO is far more reasonable to me, but still quite impressive.

By the way, this is what the EURO and GFS are currently showing from the Wednesday storm, with ratios of at least 15:1.

The GFS

The EURO

If we get the big snow base that's shown, you can bet we are in for some sub-zero nights by late next week.

That's the latest and greatest for now. Hopefully current trends hold going forward. Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS