SPRING-LIKE PATTERN TO SOON TAKE A BREAK
- 12 minutes ago
- 3 min read
JOIN THE ROSTER FOR WX SCHOOL, MODEL ANALYSIS 101
JOIN THE ROSTER FOR WX SCHOOL, MODEL ANALYSIS 101
Record-warm temperatures are in the forecast to start the next week, however a rather significant pattern change looks likely to take over the region at least briefly. Early next week, roughly March 14 through
18, a shot of colder air is likely to take over the Upper Midwest as indicated in the European Ensemble above. Temperature anomalies are projected to be -7 to -13 below normal during this period.
The upper air pattern is primarily northwesterly as a shortwave rips across the Upper Midwest which will send in some drier and colder air to shut down this rather active pattern. To get this significant change, however, there will likely be some problems that develop including a risk of severe weather in the region.
TUESDAY SEVERE RISK
The latest Machine Learning Forecast from Colorado State, as well as the Storm Prediction Center forecast, have an outlook for severe weather Tuesday. The machine learning forecast has higher probabilities than the latest SPC forecast at the moment, but I definitely see potential we can see some elevated risk levels in the days ahead. The way things look now, however, appears to be a risk farther east/southeast of the Quad Cities region and eastern Iowa.
Analogs are hinting at higher probabilities locally across southern Iowa and northern Missouri. I tend to take these with pretty good authority, especially in the midrange just a few days out, but I a not sure it makes complete sense given the projected upper air pattern. Still, this could be an early indication that the pattern may shift westward as the last system just did last week Thursday.
EARLY-WEEK RECORD WARMTH
While the severe weather risk is of low confidence for now, there is high confidence in near-record to record-breaking warmth across the Midwest. All of the above temperatures circled above are within a degree of a record high on Monday. This covers almost all of Iowa, northern and central Illinois as well as southern Wisconsin. Strong southwesterlies will be putting in a lot of work.
The significant warmth continues on Tuesday ahead of the potential severe weather risk, although records will likely be confined to areas including the Quad Cities and to the east. Either way upper 60s to low 70s will be plentiful across the area. Just beautiful before the risk of storms.
Looking ahead, as alluded to before, the spring pattern takes a bit of a breather. Forecast high temperatures likely fall into the 40s and 50s through early next week. A few models are trying to spit out some light snow chances late in the week (Friday) with another system next weekend. This is incredibly low confidence for now, let's discuss that much a little later.
I want to end with what I believe to be the most beautiful rocket launch to ever occur from the Florida Space Coast. On Wednesday March 4 a SpaceX Falcon 9 carried a fresh payload of Starlink satellites to orbit. This happened at the perfect time to produce a very rare phenomena called the "jellyfish effect." While it was still pre-dawn at the surface, as the ricket climbed high into the sky it entered orbital sunrise. The plume of the rocket was lit up by the sunlight and was incredibly visible from the surface.
I waited more than two and a half years since moving to Florida for a launch to occur during this perfect 20-minute period, and it finally happened! It was without a doubt the most memorable launch I have ever witnessed and will be nearly impossible to top.
Have a great Sunday, friends!
-Meteorologist Nick Stewart
