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STILL IN THE BULLSEYE

A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS

Dear weather friends, I'm asking for your help to raise funds for the time I invest in this site and its operational costs. So far it's been a struggle and donations are 60 percent less than at this point last year. I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch. That's a big reason why this is a no pay site. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS


THE LAST VESTIGE OF WARMTH

At noon Monday a cold front was sinking southward, bringing a day of massive temperature contrasts from north to south. While it was below freezing in northern Iowa, low 60s were seen in the far south (61 in Ft. Madison).

The Front steadily progresses south of the area by late afternoon, allowing temperatures to return to chilly levels in all areas Tuesday. These are the projected highs and the expected 24-hour change in readings.


Highs Tuesday

The 24-hour change from Monday.

By the way, wind chills will be an unpleasant addition to Tuesday's weather as you can see below.

Wednesday, the low level cold air at the surface will be overrun by warmer air aloft. Models, to varying degrees, suggest the potential for light freezing drizzle or rain. Some mixed snow (or rain south) is even possible, with temperatures generally running close to freezing or slightly below. The EURO remains the most bullish on the threat.

The GFS being less phased, does not get precipitation north of I-80. At least for now, the EURO remains consistent in its further north depiction. More on that in my next post tonight.

COLD CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD

Beyond that, the focus continues to be on the wintry pattern taking shape for the weekend and beyond. Teleconnections, analogs to similar pattern structures in the past, remain highly favorable for below normal temperatures that include surges of Arctic air. They include on the EURO ensembles:


The western hemispheric phases of the MJO (especially 8)

The negative NAO

The negative EPO

The negative PNA

The negative WPO

The negative Arctic Oscillation.

 The -AO is one of the more impressive correlations since it involves the penetration of Arctic Air. It implies the westerlies are weakening, allowing cold Arctic air to get into the mid-latitudes.

The -AO on the GFS extended is shown predominantly negative into early March (extremely low the 14-24th.

In that period, the EURO indicates temperature departures more than 30 degrees below normal in spots.

These are the associated wind chills the 16th.

Basically, while it turns noticeably colder this weekend, the really beefy cold holds off until mid-February. While some snow will attend the cold, at this point neither the GFS nor EURO shows a real menacing storm, although with this pattern that could certainly change. This is what is currently shown for snow over the next 2 weeks. Most of this comes near or after the 10th, (back loaded). Numbers are down since yesterday.


The EURO

The GFS

There are plenty of things going on, and I will be digging through fresh data to determine new trends in coming posts. That's all for now. Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS





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