STUCK IN THE DEEP MUCK...
Early April is known to be a fickle time of year when just about anything goes from snow to thunderstorms and everything in-between. It's never a good idea to get too attached to any type of weather as it's more than likely it won't be around for long.
That's the type of conditions the Midwest is going to experience for at least the next two weeks. Strong, and rather frequent spring storms are anticipated that will bring significant temperature variations and abundant precipitation. Fortunately, we are at a place in time where snow is difficult to achieve but even so a bit of that is on the table later this week. Below in the animation you can see the parade of storms crossing the region over the next 15 days. Not a lot of good days in that set up.
The following animation shows the build-up of precipitation over the two week period.
The trend depicted is for amounts to average 2-4 inches above normal ending April 20th. The15 day departures for total precipitation look like this.
As I indicated, temperatures will be riding the roller coaster. You can visualize that in the 2 week animation of temperature departures. Reds are above normal, blues below.
Unfortunately for those of us waiting for spring to flourish, the news is not good as cool air will prevail more often than not. Here's the week one departures April 6-13th.
The week 2 departures. They are even cooler than week 1. Dang it...
The EURO meteogram for the Quad Cities depicts daily temperatures over this 15 day stretch. The best potential for near to above normal readings falls in the period April 10th-April 14th. I like the look of those 70s but not the chill that follows.
SHORT TERM, A FEW MORE SNOWFLAKES...
A band of light to moderate rain came through the region overnight preceding a cold front that's now safely off to the east. Behind the front the rains will shut off for most of Wednesday as drier air temporarily sweeps in on gusty southwest winds by afternoon. Some sunshine is possible early in the day, especially in the south before clouds rotate back across the area by noon.
By Wednesday night, we've come under the influence of a massive closed low situated to the north. It's broad circulation will usher in strong cold air advection and plenty of instability. Spokes of vorticity rotating around the upper air low provides the lift necessary to bring rain and snow showers back into the picture. Some of these may clip the north late Wednesday afternoon but are more likely Wednesday night through Friday. At that time the stacked upper low is nearly overhead placing us under the cold core. It's likely that the showers (scattered in nature) become mixed with or even change to snow with 850 temps. of -5 or -6 degrees. Some of the stronger snow showers could produce brief burst of heavier snow that might be able to accumulate a bit. The worst case would be an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces, with a dusting more likely, particularly in my northern counties.
Additional precipitation Wednesday through Friday is not expected to be heavy, generally 1/10 to 2/10ths of an inch. It should also be rather hit and miss in nature since instability is involved. The GFS and EURO show this for totals.
The GFS
Snowfall amounts are not impressive unless you consider the fact it's April 7th when it falls. Maybe an inch in the northwest.
The GFS
The EURO
Temperature will be trending colder after highs Wednesday of 48-55 from north to south. From there we drop into the 40-45 degree category Thursday. Friday has the potential to be a bit warmer, especially if we can scare up a few breaks in the clouds, a big if right now.
Beyond that, most of the weekend looks dry until perhaps Sunday afternoon. That's also the time we start the moderation in temperatures that takes us from the 50-55 range over the weekend into the 70s early next week. We can thank our lucky stars for that. Happy hump day and roll weather...TS
