SUBSTITUTION, MASS CONFUSION...

If there is one thing I can say that is consistent about the weather the past couple of years, its that its been inconsistent. We have seen some remarkable extremes in just about every aspect of climate including temperatures, precipitation, and wind. It's not that extremes are unusual in the Midwest, its that we've taken it to a higher level. Personally, I suspect that climate change is also impacting modeling as higher water vapor impacts temperatures and potentially alters critical algorithms based on 10-30 year norms, especially in the longer range.

Here's an example, yesterday the GFS had a massive snow over the upper Midwest and little in my area. I knew that was unlikely. But Thursday, it shifted things at least 500 miles southeast and showed the snow band missing us well to the south. Really? That's quite a correction and what I would call mass confusion.

Then there's the EURO. Thursday, it had much of my area clobbered with a snowstorm. Thursday at 12Z, the snow band was barely clipping my southern counties with a weaker solution that was much further south. Really?

Then the 12z EURO came in Friday and flipped back north showing 10" in the Quad Cities where 6 hours earlier it had less than 1".

The 12Z GFS for the same period Friday says no way to the EURO's snowy idea showing an entirely different scenario, one that's a full scale miss my for my area. Compare what it has for snowfall to the EURO above. Night and day!

As a forecaster you hate to see these huge model discrepancies but it's part of the game. What's causing models fits is a process called phasing. That's the amount of interaction between the northern and southern streams of the jet (the polar and sub-tropical branches). The EURO is phased, the GFS not. That alters track, intensity, precipitation (amounts and type), even temperatures. Until this issue is successfully resolved, there is little confidence in any solution. Models are likely to continue to be erratic for at least another day or two. By then we should be into the better data grids of the west coast and the noise in the pattern should decrease. Suffice it to say, there is potential for winter weather next Thursday but details are far from certain. More on the potential below.

On the topic of erratic, yesterday's tornado outbreak in the southeast may have produced as many as 50 tornadoes. That makes it one of the worst January outbreaks in history.

Here's the three outbreaks that would have accounted for more than 50 twisters going back to 1950. *(January 11, 2020 is not listed but over 60 tornadoes were confirmed that day).

Once again, warmth and moisture are the keys to tornado development and those levels were exceptionally high for so early in January with this severe weather set-up..

Speaking of unusual severe weather, December 15th of 2022 was mind boggling. That day 63 tornadoes touched down in Iowa making it the largest tornado outbreak in Iowa history...in December! That and the horrific derecho of August 2021 are still two of the most incredible events I have seen in my lifetime. Just off the charts for their magnitude.

By the way, La Nina years are typically dry in the southwestern U.S. with the rains falling well to the north over the Pacific Northwest. That has not proven to be the case this year with excessive precipitation and flooding occurring all the way to southern California and Arizona. Bishop, California with 5.00" of rain in the first 10 days of January has already received more precipitation than their yearly average (4.84"). Over the past 30 days, most of coastal California's rainfall has averaged more than 5-10 inches above normal! That's extremely unusual in a moderate La Nina.

Okay, you get the idea. For whatever reason, odd and extreme weather seems to be coming at a greater frequency than I can ever remember. Hopefully I'm just not old and forgetful in my recollection.

SPECIAL RATES ON MY PLACE IN GALENA

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THE WEEKEND AND OUR NEXT 2 STORMS...

After a cold start Saturday, winds return to the south as high pressure retreats. Under partly sunny skies highs respond into the upper 30s to lows 40s. Sunday the southerly winds continue allowing additional warming. Highs head for the low to mid 40s in most areas with increasing cloudiness during the day..

Come Monday a weather system is expected to cut a path northeast through Iowa. That puts my region in the warm sector ensuring precipitation falls as rain. Even in the cold sector off to our NW, temperatures are marginal and snowfall will be limited. Highs will be well above normal Monday ranging from the mid 40s north to the upper 50s south. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible, especially in the south where warmer temperatures will be more conducive to convection. Here's what models are indicating for rain potential around my region Monday. I'm thinking these totals might be a tad high with the dry slot coming into play in parts of my region. That issue will become clearer in the next 24-36 hours.

The EURO

The GFS

The national model blend.

That brings us back to the potential storm Thursday and it's flip flops I discussed ad-nauseam earlier in this post. I won't go into that anymore until I know more. However, I do have the latest EURO, GFS, and GEM snowfall outlooks which are now all suggesting accumulating snow for my area January 19th. Again, I am far from certain how this plays out so keep in mind this is nothing more than raw model output and is by no means a forecast. At this point, all I'm trying to do is ascertain a solid trend. One way of doing that is with consistency among models. Tonight's runs have made strides in that direction but until I see the trends established for more than 24 hours I'm still on the fence as to how this all pans out. Okay, the latest snowfall forecasts for Thursday, January 19th.

The EURO

The GFS

The Canadian GEM

Also, I would like to wish a loyal follower of this site a special birthday wish. Clint "Eastwood" Franks is another year older, and hopefully smarter! His friends tell me he's quick on the draw, whatever that means! At any rate old Clint, make my day and have a fantastic birthday!

To the rest of you, make it a terrific weekend and roll weather...TS