SUMMER STRIKES BACK...

There was a hint of fall in the air Tuesday morning with some places northwest of the Quad Cities down in the 40s for lows. We can expect a similar start Wednesday with widespread upper 40s to low 50s under a regime consisting of light wind and dry air. The coldest readings will be in the valleys or drainage basins. Here's what the 3k NAM indicates.

The chill won't be around long as sunshine and good mixing brings warmer air that with time sends temperatures into the 80s, perhaps even 90 by early next week. Rest assured, summer is alive and well. The surge in temperatures is driven by a pattern change that brings a strong southwest flow into the Midwest. Here it is at 500mb next Tuesday.

Such a set-up brings temperature departures the next 7 days that are way above normal over the middle of the nation.

If the EURO has the right idea, the warmth is likely to persist much of the next 10 days. Here's what its meteogram shows for temperatures ending September 22nd. It includes 3 days of 90 degree highs.

The Climate Prediction Center is fully on board with the warmth showing this for a 6-10 day outlook ending Sept 23.

The 8-14 day outlook is not as robust but still above normal September 21-27th.

Once the southwest flow gets deeply entrenched later this weekend moisture will also come with it. The first sign of that will be increased humidity. By next Monday the EURO shows dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. If indeed we do hit 90 that will make for a muggy, summery brand of weather.

With warm air and moisture comes instability, key ingredients for rain. However, forcing is lacking and focused further north much of the next week. Temperatures aloft are also warming setting up what should be a respectable cap which further inhibits rainfall chances. Outside, of some small rain opportunities in the northwest Sunday, I don't see much for rain the next 8 days. Here's what the EURO depicts for total rainfall through next Thursday. Not much!

The GFS is a bit more aggressive but still shows nothing impressive in my area.

Beyond that, it's plausible that a stronger wave comes out of the SW flow and generates a healthy rain producer in the longer range. However, that's a long way down the road and there's much to be resolved before it ever becomes a player.

So for now, our weather is in a mellow mood and that means grab a seat and enjoy the ride! Roll weather...TS