TALKING TURKEY WEEK...
In regard to the sensible weather this weekend, there's not much to quibble about. The central Midwest will be dominated by high pressure, and that means more dry weather. In fact, skies will be mostly sunny, with daytime temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Nights will be chilly in the 20s, but that's to be expected at this time of year. All things considered, the forecast is a high-end keeper, especially with what's to come next week.
LET'S TALK TURKEY WEEK...
Monday, we come under the influence of a complex interaction of energy that involves a storm tracking to the southeast and a surge of cold air that dives in on its backside. It brings clouds into the region Monday and the threat of some showers later in the day. These are likely to be more widespread Monday evening, but current trends show less phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet. That means a relatively short window for rainfall, and precipitation amounts that will be heaviest southeast of the Quad Cities. The GFS shows this Monday and Tuesday.
The EURO is a little further north and slightly higher on amounts. Either, way precipitation looks more substantial in the SE half of the region.
The less phased look of the models is unanimous, taking some of the edge off the cold and wind Tuesday night and Wednesday. This is all tied to the phasing of energy, which is a known challenge in models, especially with split flow set-ups such as this one. I've been harping about the perils of phasing since last week, knowing the struggles it presents. Just to give you an idea of how things can change, here's the GFS 0Z run Wednesday night. The more phased look has a deep surface low in NE Indiana Tuesday evening with very cold air, high wind and snow wrapping into the Midwest behind the system
The scenario produced a snow output on the GFS that looked like this.
12 Hours later the GFS (with more of an un-phased look), has a weaker storm with less of everything including cold, wind, and no snow at all. There's not even a surface low in NE Indiana. That is why one needs to be very cautious forecasting in a split flow pattern such as this.
Anyway, we have now reached a place where it seems temperatures Monday and Tuesday will stay in the mid 40s. Following Monday's scattered light showers, we may even see partial sunshine Tuesday after Monday's showers shift off to the east.
COLDER BY THANKSGIVING.
Tuesday night, a healthy cold front arrives. It cranks up the NW winds and dumps colder air into the Midwest. The latest trends hold the chill over the region into early next week. Fortunately, the less phased solutions keep highs about 10 degrees warmer than was indicated 24 hours ago. The EURO meteogram points to high temperatures in the 30s, November 22nd-27th. There's plenty of cold turkey in there considering normal highs remain in the mid 40s!
The next issue centers around a secondary trough next weekend that kicks another round of energy and forcing into the region. As with the system Monday and Tuesday, phasing is again an issue, keeping confidence low regarding the development of what looks to be a band of snow November 24th or 25th. I could certainly see some accumulations, but we are just too far out to take a stab at any amounts just yet. These are some very preliminary suggestions on snow totals a week out. Much can change in coming days. You can already see a big difference between the EURO and GFS.
With that, I will call it a post while keeping an eye on next week. Have a fantastic weekend and roll weather...TS.
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