TASTY LEFT-OVERS...
As we settle into the midweek period we'll be watching a respectable storm system deepen as it crosses the Midwest. While some very light precipitation is possible in the far south Wednesday night or early Thursday, the main thrust of the storm remains to the southeast. The biggest impacts for my area will be blustery chilly conditions Thursday and Friday but nothing out of line with actual highs still in the low to mid 30s. Eventually as the storm departs, skies will clear and the weekend ahead remains mild for January with highs well above the norms. Those are some tasty storm left-overs.
For the minimal troubles it will cause, the passing system does have a nice satellite presentation. You can see the swirl entering California that represents the center of energy.
At 500mb the system looks impressive Tuesday night.
However, blocking in Canada forces the energy to dig slightly southeast allowing it to just graze my southern counties before it amplifies over the eastern U.S.
And here in this animation you can watch as the rain and snow shield arcs to our south before blossoming over the Ohio Valley and surging through the east. Close but no cigar. That leaves us with high pressure and a quiet weekend of weather.
As the storm passes, the EURO shows a few light showers scraping my far southern counties near the Missouri border with the heavier amounts from EC Illinois into Indiana. A very healthy rain there.
The EURO does show some snow showers that could provide a dusting in spots Thursday night. That's tied to cold air advection that wraps around at the tail end of the storm having nothing to do with the primary precipitation shield.
Temperatures behind the system will be cold but only at seasonal levels in the range of 30-35, although I could see some upper 20s in the north Friday. What will be an issue are the winds which will drop wind chills into the teens late Thursday night and early Friday. These are Friday morning wind chills on the EURO. That will get your attention.
With high pressure in control the weekend is looking good. Under sunny skies Saturday highs will poke into the upper 30s and low 40s. With return flow underway in earnest Sunday, clouds will increase in the afternoon but highs in the 40s should be widespread.
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LONG RANGE PROJECTIONS...
Our next storm is on us by Monday and with no cold air in place it will be a rainmaker. This time the region is close enough to the dynamics to get into the rain band. It's a bit early to get specific on amounts but a solid light to moderate rain is indicated (1/4 to 1/2 inch). Highs Monday may get into the low 50s from roughly the Quad Cities southeast with 60s just south of that. The EURO indicates this. That doesn't look like mid-January!
After a modest cool-down temperatures behind the storm, the remainder of next week stays mild with highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s next Tuesday through Friday. These are temperature anomalies the next 10 days ending January 20th. If you are going to have above normal readings this is the time of year to do it.
THE CHANGING OF THE THERMAL GUARDS
If it's going to get colder as the MJO signals, it's around January 22-24th that the window opens. The CFSv2 has this for 5 day temperature departures January 24th-29th. That is a striking change from the warmth above and would not be pleasant.
Taking this a step further, the 30 day period from January 25-February 24th has a month long stretch of well below normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. That would be pay-back for our recent warmth.
But at least for now, nothing worse than near to above normal temperatures are in our future for at least the next 10 days. Bad for sledding but good for living. Until next time, roll weather...TS
