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Here we are, two days from Thanksgiving and we can be thankful for nothing. When I say nothing, I'm using the metaphor to quantify rain, snow, or storm systems capable of disrupting holiday travel. Much of the nation is in line for a lengthy period of quiet dry weather with temperatures that are generally above normal. Here's what the EURO shows for precipitation departures the next 10 days (through December 1st).
Actual amounts look like this.
The Climate Prediction Center is in good agreement showing temperature and precipitation outlooks that reflect what the EURO is showing in both its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
Additionally, these big temperature swings we've been experiencing will continue to be a fixture along with the dry weather Thanksgiving week and beyond. In the meteorgram below you can clearly see we are on the upside the next couple of days with highs back in the 40s Tuesday and well into the 50s Wednesday. However, another stout cold front whips through the Midwest Wednesday night dropping temperatures Thursday and Friday into the low to mid 30s. Readings build again early next week and could very well hit 50 the last day of November. Beyond that, notice what happens December 2nd. Readings tank once more and are back down around freezing.
This in my opinion could very well be the beginning of the cold that I have been anticipating in December for the past two months. CPC is also noting the transition with much cooler temperatures showing in the period December 4-17th. It also shows a much wetter precipitation pattern evolving.
This is what the the EURO weeklies show for temperature departures the week of Christmas, December 20-27th.
Over the next 32 days (through Christmas Eve) the weeklies depict this for total snowfall.
The 46 day totals are even more impressive ending January 7th.
As I see it, the trigger driving this change to real winter is the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). Below you can see the GEFS brings it into phase 7 around December 6th. The EURO is into it by the 4th. That's not a big difference but the sooner the MJO gets into 7, the sooner this happens. Just look at the phase 7 analogs for December temperatures below.
I'm also of the idea that once in phase 7, the MJO will take a tour of 8 and 1 and which runs the table for cold phases the remainder of December. The 500mb jet on the EURO control December 7th is real a dream pattern for winter weather lovers if it verifies.
Before I end this, it's important to stress that models themselves are just showing trends and will continue to evolve and make corrections. The snowfall projections on the weekly are especially vulnerable to change as the storm track gets better defined. What I can say is if we get the cold as it seems tonight (STILL not 100%), the snow is likely to follow in some capacity. The speed and accuracy of the MJO is going to be critical to the whole process and I will be watching that like a hawk. My winter outlook is dependent on what happens in the next 6-10 days!
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