THAT BONE IS DRY...

Before we get to the big warm-up and perceived lack of rain associated with it, I came across this graphic from the Iowa Mesonet regarding the 39 degree low found in the Quad Cities Sunday. It shows the average date of the first sub-40 temperature is in Moline, going back to 1871. The 39 occurred on the 7th, which is 20 days earlier than the average date of September 27th. It's just 5 days later than the earliest sub-40, which was September 2nd, 1946. While the data on the right does not reflect it, this year's 39 should be tied for 3rd earliest regarding sub-40 lows. On the flip side, the latest the Quad Cities has gone without a low below 40 was October 31st, 1931, That's nearly 2 months later than this year and really hard to do!

We are done now with the chilly conditions of the past 10 days, as warmer weather gets set to advance into the Midwest. Overnight, a few showers tried to graze my far northern counties but dry air thanks to dew points in the 40s left us all high and dry, a place we've been living in for more than 3 weeks. That old bone is dry and getting drier.

The upper air pattern at 500mb is finally transitioning from a trough to a growing ridge over the central U.S. That will bring a more summery brand of weather into the weekend but only limited chances for rain until the middle of next week at the earliest. The EURO shows essentially dry weather through next Monday.

Going out 10 days, it's not much better but does show a fetch of moisture to the west that produces some nice rains just to our west in central Iowa. That might just clip SE Iowa, but confidence is low in that happening.

The GFS indicates this for its version of rain the next 10 days.

Where confidence is high is in the return of warmer weather and above normal temperatures. That's reflected in the 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

After another day of highs in the 70s north to the low 80s south Wednesday, the ridge starts to exert itself late this week. Temperatures should respond and be widespread in the low to mid 80s Thursday and mid to upper 80s Friday. With the ridge axis in direct proximity this weekend, we can expect to see the hottest temperatures of this surge. The GFS is having fits with how warm and how long the heat lasts due to its mishandling and over depiction of strong mixing, and depicts highs a couple of days that are as much as 12 degrees above any other guidance. Its extreme warmth is discounted. Here's what it shows for readings the next 2 weeks in the Quad Cities. Very toasty and no doubt wrong through next Thursday.

The EURO is the way to go as far as I'm concerned, and it does bring in some hot September days, especially Saturday and Sunday. It also carries the heat further into next week than yesterday, but it gradually does get knocked down as the week progresses. The coming warmth will help offset the very cool start to the month. Here's what the EURO shows. In my opinion, it's far closer to reality than the GFS.

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IT COULD BE WORSE...

One saving grace from this round of warmth will be dew points that remain in the low to mid 60s compared to the upper 70s and low 80s of other heat related events this summer, particularly with crops long past peak evapotranspiration. As a result, the heat index will not be a major issue, but it will be high enough to make it uncomfortable. Needless to say, the AC will be quite useful during the day, but the longer nights and drier air will make things cooler and far more tolerable after sunset.

As next week progresses, the ridge should shift far enough to the east to allow deeper moisture and perhaps some ridge riding disturbances to kick up scattered showers and storms midweek or beyond. At this distance, timing and intensity are impossible to predict, however the potential for rain does increase.

Summer still has some gas in the tank, and we will see full proof of that this weekend. Thanks for visiting the site and roll weather...TS