THE BEAT GOES ON...
The beat goes on for the very active weather pattern we've been in for the past 4 weeks.. As you can see in the satellite imagery, one storm is departing taking its clouds with it while the next one is set to take it's place Tuesday.
To prove my point how active it's been, here's a plot showing that at least a trace of precipitation has fallen at the NWS office in Davenport 17 of the past 34 days (50% of the time).
Most of my region has seen 3.75 to 4.50 inches of precipitation during that 34 day period with as much as 6 inches in my northern counties up around Dubuque and HWY 20.
This next system is not going to be overly wet but it is complex with enough moisture to bring light to moderate rains to much of the central Midwest. Additionally, it's a slow mover meaning unsettled weather will be with us through at least Thursday night. Not only that, temperatures will grow colder with time and rain showers will turn to snow showers before the system spins out late in the week.
The reason for the slow movement of the storm is the fact the energy gets cut off from the westerlies which would normally force the system east at a faster clip. You can watch in this animation the short wave energy diving into the Pacific Northwest where it begins to carve out the trough and cut-off low at 500mb over the central U.S. That's a very healthy mid-latitude trough that's got plenty of cold air on its backside.
With precipitation coming in spokes of energy and forcing, rain (or snow) won't fall continually, it will come in spurts and eventually become showery before ending. The first wave is anticipated later Tuesday as the air becomes both warmer and moister. Towards evening, a cold front enters the fray and that enhances rains before temporarily ending them once it passes.
Most of Wednesday remains dry until the next spoke of vorticity arrives late Wednesday afternoon. That should generate additional showers that will be scattered around through Wednesday night. By Thursday strong cold air advection will drop temperatures just above the surface well below freezing. That instability drives more showers that are likely to mix with and eventually change to snow. Again these will be hit and miss but at times could produce brief but intense bursts of snow. A few spots could see a dusting, especially in the northern half of my area on grassy and elevated surfaces.
Here's what models are indicating for total precipitation Tuesday through Friday. The majority of this comes Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The EURO
The GFS
The GEM
Here's what models are suggesting for snow. Nothing major down our way but snowflakes are in our future, especially Thursday night and Friday morning.
The GFS
The GEM
The EURO
Beyond this we should have a period of quiet weather Saturday and perhaps parts of Sunday but already another system is hot on the heels of this one and it too looks formidable Tuesday through Wednesday of next week. The good thing about this storm is that it will deliver the warmer weather I've been promising for some time after April 10th. However, I'm sorry to say it does not look prolonged as recent data shows below normal temperatures returning April 15th and beyond. You can see the trends in the long range meteograms of the EURO and GFS.
The EURO
The GFS
With the active pattern locked in place for what looks to be another 2 weeks, precipitation is likely to be above normal through mid-April. Here's what the EURO and GFS indicate for totals April 5-20th.
The EURO
The GFS
Here's what's indicated for snow over that same period. Low confidence to be sure but not the trend most of us would like to see at this time of year.
The EURO
The GFS
Well, suffice it to say it's going to be another busy and interesting week of weather without much evidence of spring. Such is life in the Midwest. Roll weather...TS
