THE BEST OF MOTHER NATURE...
Wednesday was a mighty fine day around the Midwest, one that I would categorize as a ten! A quick look at the satellite with its cloud free skies and you can see how extensive the sunny weather was. Not a cloud to be found in Iowa or Illinois.
What you can't see are the temperatures and boy were they nice with highs in the mid to upper 70s, even a few 80s in southeast Iowa.
The exceptional weather is allowing the harvest to progress quickly where farmers have decided it's time to bring it in. This map shows the percentage of beans harvested. In Iowa the 55 percent figure in Iowa is 27 percent higher than the 10 year average as of October 4th
Corn is also ahead of schedule in Iowa but there is plenty of work to be done with only 25 percent of the harvest completed. Illinois on the other hand is well behind the 10 year average where wet weather has slowed development and drying, especially in the southern half of the state. The past few days have really helped move the process along.
The concerning news on the corn harvest is centered on Iowa where 24 percent of the corn crop is rated in poor to very poor condition. The August derecho and a prolonged drought in the western half of the state is responsible for those grim numbers.
Farmers and city slickers alike will get to enjoy more of this outstanding harvest weather right on through the weekend with no rain in sight and temperatures well above normal.
Some notable changes are expected Monday/Tuesday when a healthy trough enters the Midwest. Here it is at 500mb. The EURO is deeper and further south than the GFS. That does matter as the EURO would bring some chilly air into the central U.S. a couple days earlier that the GFS. It would also move it out faster.
Whatever solution pans out, both models indicate sharply colder temperatures for a few days the middle or end of next week.
The EURO has its coldest air Wednesday.
The GFS has its on Friday and as you can see not only is it colder but the chill covers much more real estate. I'm not getting a good read on which trend is correct so we'll give it a day to settle out.
The speed of the front and amount of available moisture will play a key role in determining if precipitation is much of a factor. At this point amounts look light and that's the way I'm leaning. The EURO has this for totals late Monday or Monday night.
The GFS has this for the same period.
The bottom line in this post is that the forecast looks excellent, straight forward, and trouble free through the weekend. Things will get more challenging next week so for now set back and enjoy the best of mother nature! Roll weather...TS