THE GOOD, WITH A SIDE OF BAD

Here we are on the verge of the weekend and if I had to sum it up, I would say we start warm, end up cool, with some rain in the middle for good measure. The key to our successful moments will be timing. Fortunately, the daytime hours of Friday will be summery and dry before rain arrives overnight and departs by morning. That allows for a break Saturday with another round of mild temperatures before more showers Saturday night. The system exits early Sunday, leaving us dry but under the influence of brisk winds and significantly cooler air. My take, 2/3rds of the weekend looks good (especially during the day) and the remaining 1/3rd (primarily at night), is where the train gets slightly off the tracks, that's something I can embrace.

Let's focus on Friday, because it looks to be a beauty by October 17th standards. Ahead of a deepening storm system to the west, a tightening pressure gradient will deliver SW winds and summery conditions, with highs pushing or even exceeding 80 in most areas.

The GFS is really toasty, showing this for highs Friday.

If you are wondering, temperatures of that magnitude are a solid 20–22 degrees above normal.

Going back 155 years, only 16 times has Moline reached 80 or above on October 17th. That's a 9 percent shot. After the 17th, you can see 80 degree days really become rare compared to the first half of the month.

Based on the graphic below for Moline, the frequency of not seeing another 90, (reaches 90 percent October 1st). The frequency for not reaching 80 degrees, or higher reaches 90 percent October 26th, 70 degrees October 17th, and 60 degrees December 22nd.

Conversely, odds are at 90 percent we will see our first 32 by October 31st, 28 degrees by November 10th, 26 degrees by November 14th, and 22 by November 27th. In other words, within a month, chances are high we will have experienced a temperature well into the 20s. That, my friends, is why you should take the time to enjoy what is on the table today!

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SOME RAIN, BUT NOT WHAT WAS ADVERTISED

Getting back to that approaching storm system, the first wave of energy from that crosses the region Friday night. By then, available water vapor is approaching 1.35 inches. That combined with some minor instability should be good enough for showers and even a few garden variety thunderstorms. Generally amounts should be light 1–2 tenths of an inch, maybe a bit higher if any thunderstorms can pop.

With that out of the way by Saturday morning, the front causing it has turned stationary in Missouri, where it awaits the arrival of a second wave of energy. When it's absorbed, it generates a surface low which tracks from Quincy northeast to near Chicago. The deepening low is expected to generate a deformation band to its northwest that brings another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms Saturday night. There is discrepancy on how far NW the low tracks, which will be critical to how much rain the area receives. Right now, it sure looks like the heavier rain is focused over the southeast half of my area (generally from the Quad Cities southeast). Even there, amounts are mainly in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch category. Before any rain develops overnight, daytime highs Saturday should again be well into the mild range of 75-79 north to south.

Here's what guidance is suggesting for rain totals. The numbers have really come down the past couple days, with the heavier amounts now shown just to the southeast. That's disappointing, as some hefty totals are likely to the southeast, which we could have really put to good use locally.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3K NAM

The 12K NAM

THE HRRR

The experimental RRFS

OUT WITH THE OLD, IN WITH THE NEW...

By Sunday, the system is charging off to the northeast. That takes any rain threat with it, and skies will clear from west to east in the morning. Blustery and much cooler conditions will prevail, with highs in the range of 59-64 north to south.

Most of the day Monday should be dry with a nice bounce in temperatures with highs peaking in the range of 65 to 70, back above normal. However, towards late afternoon or early evening, a strong cold front ushers in some very fresh air and perhaps some fast moving showers. Amounts won't be much with limited moisture and the fast movement of the cold front. The real impacts will come in the form of the coldest readings of the season so far.

Highs Tuesday may struggle to get out of the upper 40s in the northern third, with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Strong NW winds will make it feel significantly colder.

Wednesday morning has the potential to be frosty, even freezing, if winds subside quick enough overnight. For now, the GFS shows lows close to that 32 degree mark in the north. Like it or not, 'tis the time for seeing lows of that caliber.

After that, things look pretty quiet the rest of next week and into the weekend. Readings should also moderate once again and if we can get a freeze, might meet the qualifications of Indian Summer. Why not! Roll weather...TS.