WINTER, IT'S UP FOR GRABS...

By now, anybody who frequents this site knows full well the first half of October has been one of the warmest since the inception of records at the Moline Quad City airport back in 1873. This graphic shows the temperature departures over the past 10 days. Going even further back to the 1st, the average high this month is 77.6 degrees. For perspective, normal is 68.7. As you can see below, the entire Midwest has been basking in the exceptional warmth.

My climate Guru and statistic machine, Steve Gottschalk came up with the idea of comparing the top ten warmest starts to October to the ensuing winters. We were both wondering if there is any strong correlation to what the cold season might be like. Below, he has summarized the months of December through March and compiled the winter snow totals for each winter. He even calculated the existence of La Niña, El Niño, or neutral ENSO conditions.  This year, we will enter winter with what's expected to be a relatively weak and short-lived La Niña.

One of the takeaways from Steve's research is that snowfall from the 10 warmest starts to October averaged above normal at 44.87 inches. Of more relevance is the average snowfall from neutral and La Niña winters came out to a robust 50.7 inches, skewed by the 2007-08 winter, which produced a whopping 77 inches. Throw that out of the mix has a high-end anomaly, and you still get an above average snow season with about 43 inches.

Top Ten Warmest October 1-10th and Following Winter

Year  December             January                  February               March                     ENSO SNOW

2021 warm/less snow    cold/snowy            cold/less snow       warm/ less snow     La Niña 31.7

1997 warm/ snowy        warm/ snowy        warm/ less snow    warm/ less snow    El Niño 29.4

2007 cold/ snowy          cold/ snowy          cold/ snowy           cold/ less snow       La Niña 77.0

1963 cold/ snowy          warm/ less snow    warm/ snowy         cold/ snowy            El Niño 40.5

1969 normal/ snowy      cold/ less snow      normal/ normal      cold/ snowy            El Niño 49.5

2017 normal/ snowy       warm/ less snow   normal/ snowy       cold/ snowy            Neutral 48.3

1973 cold/ snowy           normal/ snowy      normal/ snowy       normal/ less snow   La Niña 43.9

2013 cold/ snowy          cold/ snowy          cold/ snowy           cold/ normal            Neutral 47.6

2018  warm/ normal        warm/ snowy       cold/ snowy            cold/ less snow       El Niño 50.5

1982  warm/ less snow    warm/ less snow  warm/ snowy        normal/ snowy        El Niño 30.3

Average 44.87

Another trend Steve and I thought was interesting is that Decembers were colder and decidedly snowier in a weak La Niña year, with a 70 percent chance of above normal snow. It's been some time since we had both a cold and snowy December. Could this be the year?

Monthly snow breakdown

December's average monthly snowfall - 10.1"

January's average monthly snowfall - 10.4"

February's average monthly snowfall - 8.6"

March's average monthly snowfall - 6.4"

Monthly temperature and snow odds

December temps. -  60% chance of being colder than normal when you factor in a weak La Niña

December snowfall - 70% chance of above normal

January temps. - 50/50 chance of being warm or cold

January snowfall - 60% chance of above normal

February temps. - 70% chance of being colder than normal

February snowfall - 70% chance of above normal

March temps. - 60% chance of being colder than normal

March snowfall - 60% chance of being normal to above normal

BACK TO THE HERE AND NOW

What to my wondering eyes did I see appear Wednesday in Dubuque? It was rain, and that was a sight for sore eyes. I put grass seed down in my backyard almost 3 weeks ago and since that time had 1/4 inch of rain. I've been watering twice a day ever since, but today, mother nature took care of the job, and I am grateful. Not everybody was a lucky, as you can see by the Doppler rainfall estimates. The south saw little if any rain, and amounts of 1/4 inch or more were generally north of a line from Vinton to Cedar Rapids on to Clinton.

The showers across the north Wednesday were driven by a warm front that bisected the center of my area near I-80. Warm air over-running cooler air to the north was the catalyst for the precipitation. Highs were nearly 30 degrees cooler from Centerville, Iowa to Hampton in the northeast.

The warm air advection that drove the showers in the north Wednesday is expected to shift north during the day Thursday, taking any showers out of the north in the afternoon. That should leave much of the area dry by evening and most of Friday. The addition of some sunshine and a turn to southerly winds will also result in warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday should reach the mid 60s in the north, with 80 possible in the far south. Friday, everybody gets a good taste of warm weather, with highs reaching the upper 70s north to the low 80s south.

Highs Thursday

Highs Friday.

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ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT

Things get a bit more complex Friday night with the approach of a cold front. Good moisture advection and some CAPE (instability) should allow showers and storms to develop and spread across the region Friday night. Amounts of 1/4 to perhaps 1/2 inch are possible in spots. The rain comes to an end Saturday morning as the front drifts into NE Missouri and stalls. A secondary wave of energy arrives towards Saturday evening that should phase with the initial front lurking to the south. The end result looks to be a low pressure that rapidly deepens with the injection of cold air and energy as it tracks toward Chicago.

This will put the area in the cold sector of the system, resulting in brisk north winds and colder air in the deformation zone NW of the surface low. Rain (and potentially some thunderstorms over the southeast) is anticipated Saturday night. Phasing will determine the impacts for my area, with the heaviest amounts indicated from roughly the Quad Cities southeast. Between the two rounds of rain Friday night and Saturday night, models suggest this for rain totals.

The EURO

The GFS

Behind the passage of the storm, blustery, cooler conditions are expected Sunday, with skies clearing from west to east as the morning wears on. High should remain in the upper 50s to low 60s for a below normal day in all the region.

Beyond that, models are still indicating a cooler pattern long range with highs falling below the 50s and 60s after October 23rd, a trend we discussed in my last post. While that is cooler, it's not nearly as crisp as was indicated yesterday, with less in the way of phasing, which decreases access to cold air.

The bottom line, enjoy the summery temperatures that are coming our way, especially Friday when highs could be up around 80. I suspect that will be the last time we see anything that warm for many moons to come. Roll weather...TS