THE GROUNDHOG MEANS IT!
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS
Dear weather friends, I'm asking for your help to raise funds for the time I invest in this site and its operational costs. So far it's been a struggle and donations are 60 percent less than at this point last year. I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch. That's a big reason why this is a no pay site. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
EMMA ROSE, THE "IOWA GROUNDHOG" SENDS A WARNING

My cat and personal groundhog, "Emma Rose Swails", was not up at the crack of dawn but when the time came for her to step outside and see her shadow (or not) she got the job done. Not only did she see her shadow, it was huge....she's a 26 pound Maine Coon. With her, the bigger the shadow, the more likely the hammer is coming down. Her personal warning to me, "get plenty of cat food, we're gonna need it"! That was it, she was back to snoring in 2 minutes.
THE WRITING IS ON THE SUBWAY WALL...
What you are looking at below is the 5-day mean 500mb flow for February 12-17th. That might not look like a hammer to you, but if that configuration pans out, it will inflict pain on many parts of the country. By that, I mean Arctic cold, nasty wind chills, and some shoveling.

All the teleconnections are lined up, including the MJO which will soon enter the western hemisphere and the colder phases of its cycle, including 8 shown below.

The -AO, -EPO, -NAO, -WPO, and + PNA are all in line. From the standpoint of analogs and correlations based on teleconnections, you can't ask for a more bullish signal for winter weather than that. Even now the operational models are sniffing the recipe and as momma says, the table is set. Here's what the operational EURO indicates is on the menu for temperature departures February 16th.

The GFS is not quite as extensive, but in my area is every bit as bad with departures near 40 below average the 18th in NC Illinois.

Here's a little sample of what the EURO is spitting out for wind chills.

Snow really doesn't come into play on the EURO until the 8th, and holds off even longer on the GFS until around the 13th. Since we are at least 6 days removed from the issue of snow, track, timing, and intensity are still up for grabs. Ensembles over the next 15 days are consistent in showing up to 6 inches of accumulation, but individual members are showing much more than that, highlighting the differences in track (very typical at this distance).
The operational EURO and GFS are very generous, but not to be trusted yet. Their value is in the trends they show, which in this case is the potential for some decent snow. Hopefully they hold in coming days. (Sorry to those of you who dislike snow, that's a personal bias coming through). Anyway, here's what the EURO and GFS are showing, some pretty good eye candy!
The EURO

The GFS

So what I have done, is set the table. The size of the serving is still unknown. Just so you know, there's still lots of uncertainty and details to be worked out, especially with snow. We've still got about a week before the dog starts barking.
Short term, something to keep an eye on is the potential for some freezing rain or drizzle Wednesday afternoon or night. Low level cold air will settle into the region Tuesday. Wednesday, warm moist air overruns the cold dense air at the surface, generating the inversion aloft for freezing rain or drizzle. The EURO has being stout on the potential for a couple of days. The GFS, not nearly as much. It remains to be seen how much moisture and forcing is generated. As it stands now, the EURO indicates this for amounts. Stand by.

Meantime, it's beautiful.... Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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