top of page
thumbnail_1 ts baner, future in your hands.png

THE IDES OF NOVEMBER...

We all know that the sooner or later, the weather will catch up with the times. The end result, cold and some snow, will find its way to the Midwest. So far, good tidings have been with us and this has been a fall to remember as far as fine weather is concerned. You may recall, a line from William Shakespeare's play the Tragedy of Julius Caesar, "beware the ides of March". A soothsayer emerges from a crowd and warns Caesar twice the Ides of March were coming. Caesar dismisses the man as a dreamer, enters the Senate building, and is promptly assassinated.

Well, I doubt November will be assassinated, but I am looking at some data that more or less says, beware the Ides of November, changes are coming. I've got a lot of years under my belt, and an event 9 days away is not something I would stake my soothsayer reputation on. On the other hand, if I see something with potential, I will at least acknowledge there is evidence on the table that some version of it is possible. That's where I stand tonight.


INTERESTING RUNS

Take a look at this: The last 2 runs of the GFS have shown 500mb patterns that depict a large cold core cut-off low over the central U.S. around November 19th.

The 18z run

The 12Z run

On top of that, The EURO artificial intelligence run (based on similar patterns/analogs of the past) suggests this at the same time.

The 18z EURO AI

All three of the runs indicate strong upper level blocking in Canada that would promote cyclogenesis in the mid-latitudes. Wherever the system forms, it is likely to move little for several says being vertically stacked and stuck in the underbelly of the block.


Aside from good model consensus, we have this occurring in the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). November 11th, the MJO is in phase 1, getting set to spend the next 10 days in phase 2.

Below, you can see what phase 2 500mb heights look like in November with a nearly neutral La Niña. Go back up and compare the forecast 500mb charts I showed above, they are dead ringers for the phase 2 analog.

WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER?

As mentioned above, this would likely be a fairly slow system with strong dynamics and a significant swath of precipitation. It could be a multi-day event for much of the area that ends up in the most concentrated deformation zone. That's already shown in the GFS and EURO AI. These are 72 hour totals

The 18z GFS

The 12z GFS

The 18Z EURO AI (which only shows 24-hour increments), is not on scale with the 72-hour totals of the GFS. Additionally, you can see the AI is further east, with the storm's center pushing the heavier band more to the SE.

So while I have pretty good confidence a respectable storm is in the making around November 19-20th, there is still considerable doubt about where it tracks and the eventual impacts it will have across the central Midwest.


Another factor is the fact that temperatures will turn colder with this disturbance, and there is the potential for a wintry component northwest of the center. Tackling temperatures is next to impossible in any sort of detail, but the broad brush approach does indicate steady cooling once the storm comes together and wobbles east. Under the cold pool, there may be enough dynamic cooling to flip rain to snow. A detail yet to be resolved, especially this far east. As the system passes, the Midwest has a good chance of seeing the coolest air of the season. That said, I don't see any connection to Arctic air so it will be crisp, but only a few degrees below normal. The GFS shows this in its 5-day departures in the run-up to Thanksgiving, November 22-27th.

Interestingly enough, all post storm guidance shows the MJO heading to phases 5, 6, and 7 by early December, which implies warmer readings will return until it cycles back into colder phases after mid-December. Indeed, if this system comes to pass, which is still not a given, I don't see any harsh wintry conditions locking in yet.


I am anxious to see where trends lead us in coming days. More often than not, this early in the season, these types of systems tend to track further NW, keeping the bulk of any snow in NW Iowa and Minnesota. That would also keep rain as the primary precipitation type and temperatures somewhat warmer. Either way, we could be in for several days of damp, dreary weather if this thing does come together. At the very least, I see some noteworthy temperatures changes in just over a week that are preceded by wet weather.


NICELY DONE...

Meantime, we are on track for another outstanding November day. Sunshine and light SE winds will combine with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s making it a winner.


Beyond that, a system similar to the one that came through this past Saturday will bring a chance of light showers late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Forcing and moisture look less than ideal and thus rain totals should come in on the light side, maybe a tenth or two in spots. Highs Wednesday remain fairly constant in the upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south.


That's where I will leave it for now. Until next time, roll weather...TS


PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.


Christa-Monument, Colorado

The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.


Phillip-Queensland, Australia

Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!


Jill

The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.


Brent

Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!


Leigh

Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB


Jenny-Frisco, Texas

It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!


Kelly

What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!


John

Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!


Tori-Cedar Falls

This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.


Mahesh-Buffalo Grove

Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.


William

Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.


Miriam

Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!


Vanessa-Chicago

Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!


MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb


Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or carolynswettstone@yahoo.com


Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.


Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.


Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!


Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn


7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA


1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping

Comments


  ARCHIVED POSTS 
 
 RECENT  POSTS 
bottom of page