THE NEW EURO IS IN THE HOUSE...
As promised, the new EURO has arrived and I am bringing you its verdict. First and foremost, it does not look dramatically different but its trend continues to be a little lower on amounts across the board as well as from west to east as it gradually weakens moving across my area. Here's what the 18Z run shows for accumulations.
Comparing that with the 12z (morning run) you can see there is less pink, especially in Illinois. The new run is on the left and the old on the right if you are challenged by reading. Most areas are similar or down a good inch or so. In Davenport the amounts went from 11.6" to 9.7" and in Cedar Rapids they went from 9.6" to 8.8".
This is still a formidable storm but it the trend has been for amounts less extreme than those 15-16" numbers that were showing up in spots yesterday . You can still see the winter storm severity index produced by the Weather Prediction Center is indicating moderate to major impacts for the majority of my area.
Here's the water vapor loop showing the upper level energy just south of New Mexico getting set to eject northeast. Precipitation is blossoming over the Plains with thunderstorms evident in Arkansas
So the general verdict is I like what the EURO is showing with no drastic changes. I would not be surprised with a couple runs to go before the storm arrives, if it goes down another inch of so. I certainly don't expect amounts to go up based in today's trends. That leaves the majority of my area with accumulations of 6-8" (maybe a little less in the far north and south. Somewhere in SE Iowa, near I-80 or just south, some 9-11" totals are possible where convective banding occurs before the storm begins to slowly weaken. I will be watching things unfold and will have plenty more on this strong winter storm tonight through its entirety Tuesday. Time for a break. Roll weather...TS
A SECOND PRINTING OF MY NEW BOOK IS ON THE WAY...
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