THE NEW FRONTIER...
The long advertised "change of seasons" is in full swing around the Midwest. A cold front has delivered a shot of early season polar air and at least for now, temperatures resembling early winter will dominate our weather into the middle of next week. Dig out the coats and gloves, you're going to need them.
The flip to cold was pretty dramatic as you can tell by looking at wind chills around 4:00 Friday afternoon. Mason City was reporting a "feel like" temperature of 23 while on the south side of St Louis with dew points near 70, it felt like 85 degrees. That's a 62 degree spread!
While rain was the dominate form of precipitation here, snow blanketed North Dakota in the cold sector of the storm. Bismarck set a record for October 26th with 8.5 inches. Minot measured a foot and Stanley picked up 15.5 inches.
Look at the temperatures the snow cover was producing Friday afternoon. Teens and low 20s are widespread over the western half of the state.
That is the cold air mass that will "chill us out" in coming days. Notice the change by way of temperature departures around the Midwest. We go from this, much above average Thursday.
To this much below average Monday.
Thanks to the newfound cold, temperatures are expected to average about 11-12 degrees blow normal per day Saturday October 28th to November 2nd.
At least through the day Saturday, precipitation looks to remain north and south of the region with a split in the overall forcing. However, models try to bring enough lift to get some showers to the ground in the south late Saturday night. Anything that develops will be fighting dry air. Some models continue to to inch the showers north Sunday. By this time temperatures in the north would be cold enough for snow (or at least a mix). However, I have my doubts how far north any meaningful amounts will get due to the dry air. I don't look for much. At best, any precipitation that reaches the ground should be nothing more than a few sprinkles or spits of snow. Trace amounts.
Temperatures Saturday should be in the low 40s north to the mid to upper 40s south. Sunday appears even colder with highs in the far north in the upper 30s. Elsewhere, readings in the low to mid 40s are likely. Considerable cloudiness is expected. Wind chills in the 20s and 30s will be a factor to consider.
HARD FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT
Sunday night a hard (killing freeze) is anticipated with lows of 19-24. With readings below the freezing mark much of the night, that should put an end to the growing season if it hasn't already occurred over the weekend. Freeze warnings look likely! Plan accordingly. Daytime highs Monday will only warm to the upper 30s and low 40s from north to south.
The next issue is the arrival of a compact disturbance in the NW flow Tuesday. The clipper depicted is projected to pass just northeast of my area. Previously the EURO took the closed circulation through EC Iowa which was a more promising track for accumulating snow in the NE half of my area. Even so, the track is close enough that cold air aloft is so significant (-10 to -11 at 850mb) that scattered snow snow showers are still a good bet, especially over the NE half of my area, roughly north and east of the Quad Cities. I don't see much for accumulations but a few spots could get a dusting where heavier bands lay out. The EURO shows this for accumulations. Note the heavier amounts NE of the clipper track in central Wisconsin.
Whatever happens, this sets us up for a cold Halloween and "bundling" issues for trick or treaters. Temperatures around sunset Halloween should be in the range of 31-33 degrees with wind chills in the low to mid 20s. Plan on bundling up, there's a good chance this years highs on Halloween could rank in the top 5 coldest of all-time.
By late next week the amplified flow at 500mb looks likely to flatten and the resulting zonal flow should bring near to above normal temperatures back to the Midwest. Along with that, the pattern looks short on moisture and over the next 10 days rainfall deficits steadily climb. Here's what the EURO shows for 10 day precipitation departures through November 6th. Farmers can get back into the fields to finish up the harvest.
That's all I have for you this time around. Enjoy the new frontier that our colder temperatures have introduced. Summer has definitely left the building. Roll weather...TS
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