THE PARTY IS OVER...

Hopefully you enjoyed the recent change to dry, pleasant weather conditions. As of Saturday the party is over, and the transition is underway to an active weather pattern that includes the following impacts.

• VERY WARM HUMID AIR

• A CLASSIC RING OF FIRE PATTERN CAPABLE OF REGULAR STORMS

• THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER

• A MODERATE CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH FLOODING

• HEAT INDEX HEADLINES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR HX VALUES OF 100+.

Out of the gate, the NWS has already issued a flash flood watch that exists through Sunday morning for much of my counties in Iowa and a few in WC Illinois.

The flood watch was issued for an influx of tropical moisture that is headed for the area. The leading edge of the deep moisture, marked by a stark dew point axis, is where repeated rounds of thunderstorms late Friday night and Saturday morning are likely. This area approximates the existing flood watch. It's this part of my region that has experienced recent heavy rain, making it vulnerable to flash flooding if more heavy rain occurs. Most models are in agreement that the remnants of an MCS will cross the SW half of my area late Friday night and Saturday morning. Accordingly, the heaviest rains are anticipated from about the Quad Cities southwest, where a wing of warm air advection ignites it. Northeast of there, little if any rain is expected. The HRRR, a high-res CAM (convective allowing model) points to the area of concern with its rainfall forecast through Sunday morning.

The 3K NAM (another convective allowing model) has its heavier rains about 30 miles further southwest than the HRRR.

Regardless of where the initial storms end up, the possibility of a second round of storms Saturday night and Sunday morning is the reason the flood watch is in effect until Sunday afternoon. The prolonged heavy rain threat is driven by water vapor that is expected to exceed 2 inches through the period. Here's a sampling of available water vapor Saturday night. That's a juicy air mass.

Additionally, SPC has the entire area in a slight risk for the possibility of strong to severe storms Saturday. High winds are the primary severe weather impact. What's unique about this situation is that the severe weather threat Saturday may be greatest in the morning hours when the MCS comes through, then again later Saturday night with round 2. That's not the usual time for severe weather, but a few of the storms may become surface based supercells, especially from I-80 south where deep layer shear is significant. Strong winds would be the primary concern, along with heavy rain rates.

Saturday appears warm and quite muggy with the warm front situated close to I-80. Highs of 83-88 are likely from north to south. After the second round of storms Saturday night and early Sunday, outflow will likely force the warm front south to the Missouri border. While conditions remain warm and sticky, temperatures will cool some Sunday and Monday, slipping into the mid to upper 70s north to the mid to upper 80s south.

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STORMS ON TOP OF STORMS...

Throughout next week, my area looks to be on the northern periphery of intense heat to the south. With regular rounds of thunderstorms, the cool outflow and convective debris should keep the baroclinic boundary nearly stationary, effectively holding the most intense heat just to the south, although glancing blows could make a run from time to time around midweek and beyond. While we may be spared the extreme heat, such a scenario places us squarely in the ring of fire, susceptible to MCS storm clusters with the ability to produce bouts of severe weather and flash flooding. Virtually every day has the potential for storms somewhere in Iowa or Illinois through next weekend. With multiple rounds anticipated, rain totals will add up and could become significant in narrow bands. The GFS remains committed to the idea that general rain totals of 2–4 inches will be widespread the next 2 weeks, with significantly more in concentrated swaths. Hopefully we can ratchet amounts down in time, but the GFS has been consistently showing this scenario, so it's becoming a firm trend.

As I mentioned yesterday, this active pattern is notoriously difficult to forecast, yet has the potential to yield impactful weather! Some part of my area may end up in that volatile position. There's a lot of potential on the table going forward. Roll weather...TS