THE SHORT END OF THE STICK

Hey everybody, I'm back in the saddle again and want to thank Nick Stewart for handling the blogs the past week. I made a trip to the north woods of Minnesota and NW Wisconsin, where I managed to stay off the grid much of the time. I'm relaxed and refreshed, and that is a good feeling.

IT'S FALL...

It's officially fall now, but one thing that hasn't changed is the dryness of the weather pattern in my local area. Despite talk of rain for much of the past 7–10 days, nothing much materialized in this area other than some spotty light showers, that is, until Monday night. Through Monday, rainfall deficits the past 30 days had reached 2.5 to 3.00 inches in many spots thanks to amounts during that period that were under 3/10ths of an inch.

Over the past 35 days in Dubuque (through early evening Monday), only 6 days had measurable rain, with the highest daily amount .07 inches. The 35-day total comes to a meager .20 inches through 8:00pm Monday. It's not much better in the Quad Cities, where the NWS reports .37 inches over that same time span. (This just in, a heavy thunderstorm dumped as much as 2" of rain in parts of the Dubuque metro area around 9:00pm Monday). Most of it came down in 35 minutes time, ending the mini drought for now. The airport south of town only reported .57 inches, but that is still almost 3 times what the previous 35 days produced.

Some parts of the area (mainly the south) will have one more opportunity for a welcome rain later Tuesday from a cold front that is currently bisecting the region. Monday evening, the front was strong enough to generate a band of storms in far northern Iowa that rolled through much of my area before dissipating during the overnight. Some locally heavy rains of more than an inch were found before it fizzled. Most spots saw considerably less, but at least there was enough to settle the dust.

Tuesday afternoon, the front may spring to life with new development late in the afternoon or evening, generally well south of I-80. From the looks of things, the bulk of these showers and storms just graze my southern counties. Unfortunately, models are all over the board, showing little rain to upwards of an inch in spots, making confidence low on any one solution. Not much to do now but wait and see how it all plays out. Here's what models are suggesting Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR

With some passing clouds and potentially a few showers or storms, mainly in the south, highs Tuesday should range from the 74 north to 80-82 from I-80 south

Wednesday and Thursday, a closed low will develop that slowly meanders towards the Great Lakes. Weak spokes of vorticity rotating around the system will cause periodic clouds and perhaps a stray shower or two, nothing that would amount to much. With E/NE winds, temperatures will be cooler but still above normal, generally in the range of the low to mid 70s.

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MORE DRY WEATHER?...

If you are still looking for rain, prospects are bleak long range. A W/NW flow aloft will provide meager moisture and dynamics for any significant storms systems. Below is the 15-day rainfall departure on the GFS through October 8th. Note how tremendously dry the Gulf of Mexico is, extending into Texas and Oklahoma. That is our moisture source, and it is effectively shut down. There's some monsoonal moisture flowing into the SW, but much of Canada and the U.S. is dry. I could see a good 7–10 days with little if any rainfall after Tuesday night.

The dry air that's coming should heat up nicely during the day and cool off at night. In mid-summer this would be a hot pattern but heading into October the old sun doesn't have the same intensity so with minimal humidity, days will be warm and nights pleasantly cool. Perfect if you don't need rain. The EURO shows well above normal highs through at least October 2nd.

That's where we stand on this first full day of fall. Make it a good one and roll weather...TS