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Well it's Thursday and so far this year, that's the day storms come to play. That will be the case again today. Several of you have mentioned this quirky "Thursday" trend to me and to satisfy my curiosity I looked it up. At the NWS in Davenport, 7 of the past 9 Thursday's have had at least a trace of precipitation. Today will make if 8 of 10. (It will also be the 5th of 10 Thursday's with measurable amounts). As you can see that is far more than any other day of the week since January 1st. Odd but true.

Today's storm promises to be a wintry one with the majority of my area in line for several inches of snow. For the moment the only advisories in place are for counties along or north of I-80.

Winter weather advisories may need to be adjusted southward a county or two as thermal parameters indicate much of the area near or north of HWY 34 should be cold enough to support snow, especially during the higher rates of precipitation when evaporative cooling is maximized. (At the start of the event, or when precipitation grows lighter some rain or drizzle could mix in). The track of the 850 low through SE Iowa will be the deciding factor on how much snow my southern counties get. That is still a bit in question. The latest EURO though indicates a 90 percent chance of an inch or more of snow down to Burlington.

The GFS is even further south than that with 90 percent odds to Keokuk...that's a push in my opionion.

Below are the odds of 3 or more inches and they are solidly indicating the region north of I-80 as the most likely candidate for those types of numbers.

The official NWS forecast currently looks like this.

As I indicated last night, guidance was clearly shifting south and to expect to see that trend in newer forecasts. The current NWS forecast made that adjustment. Note the southward trend in potential snow totals.

I suspect you'll see some more changes in that forecast when the latest NWS forecast comes out very early Thursday. Revisions are part of the process.

Now I'll show you what the latest guidance is indicating for snow totals and then comment below.



The 3k NAM

The 12K NAM


The first thing that sticks out to me is that none of the forecasts above shows more than 8 inches tops in my area and even that is an isolated case. Most guidance is suggesting a 2-6 inch spread. What's glaring beyond that is the GFS placing the max snow band along and south of I-80 where the NWS has no advisories in effect whatsoever. Every model has at least 2 inches of snow all the way to Burlington. Something has to give and I think the forecast is in a real state of flux for this late in the game. I said this last night and I will stick with it today, I think all of my area near and north of (HWY 34 south) to (HWY 20 north) ends up with snow totals of 2-6 inches. With banding some areas could see a bit more but where? In my mind the north is still favored for the higher totals but the max band may not be as far north as previously indicated. In fact, it could be significantly further south. Because of the doubt involved I will leave it at that for now. New data and radar trends will shed fresh light on the subject early Thursday. I just can't say with certainty tonight. Stay tuned.

It does appear the system is progressive and the snow which gets underway mid to late morning should be out of all of the region by daybreak Friday. That leaves us with plenty of clouds but temperatures should reach the mid 30s for highs. Road conditions will quickly improve early Friday where snow does accumulate.



Saturday will again be spent in the 30s with clouds thickening in the afternoon ahead of another snow system. This one is rather complex as two areas of energy approach. They never really phase but they do draw the moisture necessary to support snow Saturday night ending no later than early Sunday morning. The GFS has really increased moisture generating advisory level snows of 2-4 inches. I'm not sure I buy into its aggressive solution yet, especially with the EURO less enthused on the amount of moisture. It certainly is something to focus on after a quick breather to start the weekend. For sure there will be snow. I'll leave it at that for now. Have a stellar day and roll weather...TS


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