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Terry mentioned in his last post the northwest trend for the early week winter storm and that trend has continued. The bottom line is this puts more of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois into heavy snow and higher travel impacts on Tuesday. We still have a couple of days before we get there, but a significant winter storm is on the way. Terry is catching a little rest, but will be back with you for updates Sunday.

Winter Storm Watches have been posted for Monday night into Tuesday night for 6-12 inches of snow and winds up to 40 mph.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow will overspread the area from the south Monday evening and eventually end from west to east Tuesday evening. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Tuesday night into Wednesday morning leading to blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central Illinois, east central, northeast and southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri. * WHEN...From Monday evening through early Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Monday, and the commutes Tuesday into Wednesday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A long duration snow event with two to three periods of heavy snow is expected. Amounts up to a foot of snow are possible.

Snow will move in from west to east as the storm moves through the Midwest late Monday into Tuesday:

Snow will become more widespread through the day Tuesday:

Becoming moderate to heavy much of Tuesday.

Additionally, wind gusts of 30-40 mph will lead to some blowing snow later Tuesday as temperatures slowly fall:

At this stage, there still can be changes to the placement of the heavy snow bands. However, the trend continues to the northwest placing a higher chance of significant snow over much of the area. The Weather Prediction Center has 70-90 percent odds of 4 or more inches across the majority of our region.

Before I show you the snowfall totals on the models, I want to say we are still 36–48 hours before the event. At least minor changes are still possible. Here's a look at the latest snowfall projections **NOT A FORECAST** just raw model output.

The GFS:


The 12K NAM

The 3k NAM, only out 60 hours with snow still falling.

The national blend of models (NBM)

T. Swails will continue to watch the storm's evolution and will have an update early Sunday afternoon. We are definitely looking at a disruptive storm for travel Monday night through Tuesday night. Stay tuned.

Rebecca Kopelman and T. Swails



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