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An amplified pattern is on tap which will bring much warmer temperatures, as well as more active weather, across the central US in the coming two weeks as southwest flow returns aloft. This will likely bring a fairly consistent push of warmer temperatures through mid-to-late February.

Next week the European Ensemble has a major signal for some rather significant warmth across the central US, especially the Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Temperature anomalies are in excess of 10 degrees in this period, and this is from an ensemble to the true values are likely even more extreme.

We have been discussing this pattern for quite a while now, and the Climate Prediction Center is also really fixated on it as well. The latest outlook for the 6-10 Day period (Feb. 14-18) has a very high chance for above-normal temperatures, and an elevated risk for above-normal precipitation as well. The warmth is certainly welcomed, but the precipitation increase would be highly appreciated.

Much of the area is experiencing drought with the latest outlook. Eastern Iowa is in the Abnormally Dry category with many areas in Illinois at least Moderate to Severe Drought. The lack of appreciable snow as of late is starting to become an increasing concern the closet to spring we get.

Since the start of the calendar year our area has received only about 25-50% of normal precipitation. The storms have really not had a major impact on the area. The good news is the upcoming pattern looking more favorable with a storm track setting in over the region a few chances of storms are likely in the next two weeks.

Through early next week the chances of meaningful precipitation are rather underwhelming on the latest European Ensemble. Percent of normal is less than 50%, and that's somewhat impressive given this time of year is already during one of the driest times of the year.

Historically January is the driest month in the Quad Cities region followed very closely by February. Moisture can be pretty meager but there are at least a few systems to watch.

One of those is a clipper system late this week. Most model guidance has this light snow chance as the pattern starts to flip to a more active one.

The GFS

The Euro

The GFS and the Euro are both indicating the snow risk late Thursday into early Friday. This likely will not end up being a high impact event for the area, but some accumulation is certainly on the table potentially in the 1-2" range where the main axis sets up. It will likely be at least close to the region but cannot say if it will be directly over our region yet, but the chances are increasing. Aside from the warmth it's about the only exciting thing to watch in the forecast ahead.

There is a signal for a second system this upcoming weekend is increasing as well, but pretty much all guidance keeps it south of the area as of now. We'll keep a watchful eye on it but for now this seems like a non issue for our area.

have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart