THE WEATHER OUTSIDE IS...WELL, SLOPPY
Whether it's rain, sleet, or snow, the weather around the region is kinda frightful this morning. A low pressure is getting organized over the Plains and a strong low level jet has brought a surge of warm moist air into the central Midwest. Warm air advecting over the top of the existing cold surface air has generated precipitation that in most of my area started out as snow.
Now, with critical thickness levels warming, the rain has changed to rain in the south and will eventually do the same in my central and northern counties as the morning wears on. Before that happens there may be another slushy inch or two of snow, especially near and north of HWY 20. For the storm this is what the NWS shows for snow totals.
Travel which is slick in spots in the northern half of my area will improve dramatically as the day wears on as temperatures warm and rain enhances the melting. However, it is going to be a sloppy day and things won't improve much until Wednesday when rain, drizzle, and potentially some fog gradually moves off to the east.
In this series of surface depictions you can see where the rain/snow line is laid out at 5:00 AM, NOON, and 7:00 PM.
5:00 AM-The snow runs north of a line from Waterloo to Cedar Rapids to near the Quad Cities and Princeton,
NOON- The snow line is moving northward into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
7:00 PM the snow line is near and north of a line from Minneapolis to Green Bay.
As you can see in this graphic valid at noon Wednesday, the low has only made its way to central Illinois. Plenty of clouds and perhaps spotty drizzle and showers will linger into Wednesday night. Temperatures won't show much variance holding in the 40s from Tuesday night right on into Thanksgiving. However, it will be dry by Thanksgiving and hopefully there will be some breaks for a bit of sunshine. No travel issues anywhere!
The Friday through Sunday period also appears dry with seasonal temperatures until a strong front arrives late in the weekend. It should kick up the winds and may produce falling temperatures Sunday afternoon but no rain or snow is expected with the frontal passage.
The bottom line, travel weather looks good Thanksgiving through Sunday. Wednesday won't be that bad either unless we have some fog to deal with and that's too hard to foresee at this distance. I'm not overly worried about it.
The pattern looks decidedly colder much of next week as we get into more of a northwest flow aloft. We'll get into that and what it means for the start of December in my next post. Until next time roll weather...TS
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