THE WINTER HITS MAY JUST BE GETTING STARTED

A snowy and cold few days across the region will likely be just the beginning of a wintry pattern taking over the second half of January. Analogs (above) are indicating a high confidence in below-normal temperatures as a conveyor belt of clippers and cold air from the northwest spill into the Great Lakes and Midwest. Temperature anomalies will likely be 10-15° below normal in due time, with the coldest air arriving starting late week into the weekend.

The analogs are also signaling a period of above-normal precipitation, which given this trajectory maps out the form factor of a clipper parade with bursts of snow and bitter cold. What's notable with this pattern is, if we go get this training pattern of clippers, it will start to add a snowpack to our northwest. That snow will then modify the air and make it colder, basically creating a positive feedback loop of colder and colder air. That has been what's been missing this winter so far in terms of a lasting and impactful Arctic blast. This signal is what might get the ball going.

SUNDAY - CLIPPER

We are watching our next clipper system Sunday afternoon and evening which could bring a quick hit of fluffy snow, followed by bitter cold on the back side. Snow overall will be about 1" to perhaps 2" at most. The highest totals will be southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. Locally, less than 1" is likely for areas about along and north of I-80.

The HRRR I think has a pretty good handle on the system. You can see some light snow to near I-80 including the Quad Cities region. This could be enough to create some slick spots, and reduced visibility at times with blowing and drifting snow as wind gusts kick up to 40-50mph.

Peak gusts indicated on the models Sunday afternoon and evening will likely push well over 40mph in the region. This wind, with the bitter cold air wrapping in, will lead to some dangerous wind chills Monday morning.

Wind chill values likely will push into the -20 to -30 range Monday morning with a Cold Weather Advisory in effect (formerly wind chill advisory). If it wasn't for the holiday many schools would likely have delays.

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MID-WEEK CLIPPER

An additional clipper system is looking likely late Tuesday into Wednesday. It's showing up well in both global (Euro above) and high-res convective models (RRFS below). This again does not appear to be a major snow producer (perhaps 1-2"), however the timing could be problematic for the Wednesday morning commute. This is leaning towards an impact perhaps just to the north (think Highway 30 north) so the Quad Cities area may escape the worst of it, but it is worth watching.

LATE-WEEK SYSTEM

Continuing with a look at the analogs, the mean snowfall is lining up right over the area late this week into the weekend. While analogs are more intense with snowfall the raw model guidance is not.

THE EURO

The GFS

The two main global models are indicating some type of storm Friday through Sunday, but the timing, track and strength of the storm systems are quite different at this point. The main takeaway I am seeing at this point is that the "phasing," or combining of pieces of energy of the atmosphere, is lacking. We don't see a particularly strong storm but rather a weaker system that is more so in two pieces.

The European Ensemble guidance has a large area of potential precipitation with this system with a tendency to lean more southeast. This is generally in line with the GFS and operational Euro which is farther southeast of our area. If we do see this system phase stronger, it could trend to the northwest. If there's one place I would want to be (if I wanted snow) it is northwest of a potential winter storm that could strengthen. I don't think we should count this one out, yet.

The bitter cold behind the Sunday clipper will moderate by midweek before the next shot of cold air arrives after the potential weekend storm. Notice sub-zero lows back in the forecast. The pattern next week may feature a few additional clipper systems with more snow (as alluded to earlier with the analogs). If you want winter we may just be getting started.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart