THOSE APRIL SHOWERS ARE ARE WORTH WATCHING

The end of March is lacking any major excitement from a weather standpoint, but longer-term forecasts are showing an uptick in activity as we move into April with ensemble guidance and analog support. This could be a somewhat active stretch overall with multiple waves of storms moving through the central US as the pattern that builds in supports a somewhat active pattern.

Analogs are all in on well above normal temperatures in the region as the active weather pattern takes over. The probabilities for these warmer than normal highs are well into the 80%+ range for March 30 through April 2. The pattern will strongly support the warmth and more active weather.

The 500mb pattern on the European Ensemble (above) shows rather strong southwest flow over the central CONUS which will bring an active weather pattern somewhere in the United States. Given the time of year severe weather is also worth watching in this window - approximately March 30 through April 6. This would also fit the pattern I mentioned in my spring tornado outlook in yesterday's post featuring an active start to April in terms of severe weather potential.

Analogs suggest some potential for severe weather from Iowa through Texas. This window above shows March 30 through April 2 which currently has severe weather probabilities ticking over 30 percent. Over time we will see this area at risk get smaller with time. We will watch forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center in the coming days as confidence slowly increases for the severe weather risk.

The good news? Analogs from Northern Illinois University have no tornadoes in our area with the main risk areas being a little farther south. Hail analogs, however, indicate some severe weather potential locally. This would likely signify a warm from parked over the region. In addition to the severe weather threat this would also indicate some heavy rainfall risk.

I mentioned it last week as heavy snow developed to our north, as as the record warmth took over this past week that fresh snow melted and started making its way through the rivers. The Mississippi River at Dubuque shows a gradual rise going forward over the next week. If we do add heavy rain on top of this we could be talking about potential flooding along the rivers in eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. For now this is entirely dependent on heavy rain so it remains just a watch item for now.

The Climate Prediction Center has outlined the area at risk for heavy rainfall in the same March 30-April 3 time frame mentioned above. A lot of our forecasting tools are in alignment that some heavy April showers are looking likely ahead, hopefully the brilliant May flowers follow.

Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart