- May 15, 2022

THROTTLING DOWN...

After a spectacular day of weather Saturday, changes are slowly evolving that will put an end to the summery conditions of the past week. Here's the high temperature departures around the Midwest the last 7 days. Readings across my area were 11-15 degrees above normal per day. No more of that any time soon.

What a huge turn around it's been after an April that was in the top 5 coldest of 129 years in my northern counties (top 10 down south). Here's the April departures from mean.

I remember thinking last Tuesday, I don't ever recall it being so hot and humid so early in the season. Well, I had the right idea as the 4 day consecutive streak of 90s is the earliest we have ever seen heat like that. The previous stretch was back in the dust bowl year of 1934. On the right side of the graphic you can see the end dates of previous 4 day streaks in Moline.

We're certainly in for a change Sunday as a short wave crosses the region. It's short on moisture but forcing is strong enough for periods of clouds and scattered showers, mainly in the morning. Chances will be greatest south of I-80 where the best forcing is concentrated. Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals. Little if anything north, generally light amounts south.

The 12k NAM

The EURO

The GFS

Depending on the extent of cloud cover, highs Sunday will end up in the range of 65 to 70, warmest where there is more sunshine.

Monday we're in between systems which yields a fine day. Under partly sunny skies high should get back in the low 70s.

Later Tuesday and part of Wednesday, showers and a few storms return to the forecast as a weak wave rides a boundary across Missouri. Warm air advection clouds, showers, and a few garden variety thunderstorms are indicated but look light and again should be confined primarily to the south. If the system goes any further south, much of my area may not see much more than passing clouds and sprinkles. Temperatures should remain seasonal in the low 70s.

A warm front approaches the area Thursday and could be accompanied by a few spotty storms. That's followed by a cold front Friday that could also scare up a couple storms. Right now I don't see much for rain in either situation. However, between the two fronts temperatures should be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s both days. Dew points will also increase so expect conditions to be a bit muggier as well.

By next weekend a significantly cooler pattern is on the table. The GFS meteogram shows the potential. I'm not sure it will be this strong or long lasting but it's a far cry from what we just experienced the past week. Something to watch.

The associated week two temperature departures (May 22-29th) are a little friskier than I would like to see. Certainly a move back towards the pattern we saw so much of in April. Fortunately the sun is stronger now and what would have been 50s then is 60s now. Small consolation.