TORNADO THREAT STILL EXISTS...
A very strong warm front is nearing I-80 that will become the focal point for supercell development late afternoon and early evening. A moderate level 4 of 5 risk remains in effect for much of the area. All modes of severe weather are possible which means very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a couple of strong tornadoes.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_79eab108702f42f2ae091e9c1b313563~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_37,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_79eab108702f42f2ae091e9c1b313563~mv2.png)
The primary tornado threat will be near the warm front where shear is maximized. The significant tornado threat is close to 10 near the Quad Cities between 5 and 6pm.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_6837c27e54054f03af86ba9f0a675091~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_147,h_110,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_6837c27e54054f03af86ba9f0a675091~mv2.jpg)
A broader perspective shows the east west warm front where the threat is maxed out this evening.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_803311de646840b68c6ee9b04c1ca9bd~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_38,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_803311de646840b68c6ee9b04c1ca9bd~mv2.png)
SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion indicating a tornado watch is coming at some point later this afternoon. It
is likely to encompass much of my region into the evening. It does reference the possibility of strong tornadoes.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_8add93e6e2b746a0842e74a5b751f903~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_82,h_61,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_8add93e6e2b746a0842e74a5b751f903~mv2.png)
Here's the associated discussion from SPC
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_4a0c7bba4a1a4617b9cf4db21a18d547~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_63,h_90,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_4a0c7bba4a1a4617b9cf4db21a18d547~mv2.png)
As I write this the tornado watch has been issued for all of my area until 10:00 this evening.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_e65cc9e5c63d4702bd9f90ac82ca7a39~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_64,h_76,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_e65cc9e5c63d4702bd9f90ac82ca7a39~mv2.png)
Currently there is a bit of a cap in place holding convection back but that is expected to break with storm initiation taking place in SE Iowa or WC Illinois in within the next 2 hours. Rapid intensification is expected once updrafts develop.
The potential for very large hail up to 3 inches exists and large hail probabilities exist over much of the region, nearly 100 percent north of I-80.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_e8077567e33b42a5bb8a163cf81eb32e~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_32,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_e8077567e33b42a5bb8a163cf81eb32e~mv2.png)
With fast storm modes and the potential for tornadoes after sunset, this has the potential to be a dangerous evening. Please stat alert to any warnings and have a safe plan. Time is of the essence with fast moving storms. Roll weather...TS