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A very strong warm front is nearing I-80 that will become the focal point for supercell development late afternoon and early evening. A moderate level 4 of 5 risk remains in effect for much of the area. All modes of severe weather are possible which means very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially a couple of strong tornadoes.

The primary tornado threat will be near the warm front where shear is maximized. The significant tornado threat is close to 10 near the Quad Cities between 5 and 6pm.

A broader perspective shows the east west warm front where the threat is maxed out this evening.

SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion indicating a tornado watch is coming at some point later this afternoon. It

is likely to encompass much of my region into the evening. It does reference the possibility of strong tornadoes.

Here's the associated discussion from SPC

As I write this the tornado watch has been issued for all of my area until 10:00 this evening.

Currently there is a bit of a cap in place holding convection back but that is expected to break with storm initiation taking place in SE Iowa or WC Illinois in within the next 2 hours. Rapid intensification is expected once updrafts develop.

The potential for very large hail up to 3 inches exists and large hail probabilities exist over much of the region, nearly 100 percent north of I-80.

With fast storm modes and the potential for tornadoes after sunset, this has the potential to be a dangerous evening. Please stat alert to any warnings and have a safe plan. Time is of the essence with fast moving storms. Roll weather...TS


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