TRY, TRY, AGAIN...
Friday was one of those days when the weather got the best of me. The storm that passed through the Midwest tracked where it was expected and produced a nice band of rain across the southeast half of the region. However, things went sideways in the north, where cold air was never deep enough to change rain to snow for any significant period of time. As a result, snow totals in the NW were minimal and less than expected.
What's tough for me is that I stayed up until 4:15am to get the latest data and make sure I had the right idea on where the rain snow line would be and how much snow might fall. (It's sick, but that's what I do). Below you can see all the snowfall guidance that I had access to less than 4 hours before the snow was expected. Consistency and location were consistent, and I thought the trends were solid, especially 4 hours before the event.
The 3k NAM
Four hours later, when the snow was expected to develop, I'm wide awake bailing water as it was apparent the wintry element of the storm was not materializing. So much for effort! Nothing like a little humble pie to start the day. I'm still a bit shell-shocked, but it is what it is, a poor forecast as far as snow is concerned. All I can do is learn from it and try, try, again. My apologies.
Regarding Friday's rains, some spots SE of the Quad Cities picked up more than an inch. Here's the Doppler estimates of how much fell.
Unfortunately, the rain band largely bi-passed the severe to moderate drought areas that exist in eastern Iowa. In fact, the heavier rains fell in the part of the Midwest that needed it the least. Go figure.
That brings me to the next round of energy and the potential for rain, snow, or a mix Saturday night and early Sunday. Most guidance is indicating precipitation potential of 1/4 to 1/2 inch Saturday night through Sunday morning. Much of that would be snow in the NW, with the rain snow mix more of a concern further SW. Models continue to assess the situation and have come in with this for potential snowfall accumulations Saturday night through Sunday evening. The higher totals are most likely to occur in the NW where thermal profiles will be coldest. Take a look.
The 3k NAM
The 12K NAM
My expectation is that snowfall of 1 to 2 inches (perhaps 3 in a few spots), is likely near and NW of a line from Ft. Madison and Burlington northeast to Rockford Saturday night. With temperatures near to slightly above freezing at the surface, accumulations are likely to be most concentrated on grassy and elevated surfaces as opposed to roads. Only minor travel issues are currently anticipated.
After that, some additional snow showers are possible Tuesday with the arrival of the last impulse in this recent onslaught of disturbances. The latest trends keep the accumulating snows just to the north in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Finally, by Thursday and Friday of next week, the 500mb jet is forecast to flatten and lose amplitude. The return to zonal flow will initiate a significant warm-up, with highs in the 40s and 50s thanks to a surge of Pacific air. Above normal temperatures could be around for much of the period December 8th-17th.
Have a fantastic weekend and roll weather...TS
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