UP, UP, AND AWAY...FOR NOW
The second day of November was just as good or better than the first, and that's saying something! Highs all around the region were in the low to mid 70s and a number of places were within a couple degrees of records. Cedar Rapids at 76 and Moline with 77, missed their existing records by a single degree. As you can see, most of the central and upper Midwest enjoyed highs 20-30 degrees above normal.
Even better, we get to do it all over again Thursday. The GEFS indicates the odds are 90 to 100 percent of highs exceeding 70. In other words about as close to a sure bet as you can get.
The hi-res HRRR shows most spots reaching the low to mid 70s, similar to what we saw today.
Record highs Thursday are actually a bit lower than those of Wednesday but the addition of some high clouds could be just enough to keep us from setting any new marks. It's going to be close. No matter what happens it will be a blustery and very mild day. Here are the record warm lows and highs we are shooting for.
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING November 3rd
RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY November 3rd
Cedar Rapids. 75, 1964
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING November 4th
Dubuque........ 54, 1898
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR MANY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
Friday we remain squarely in the warm sector but by then we are feeling the impacts of complex jet structure and deepening storm system to the west. With a 130kt jet streak aimed at the region Friday the moist conveyer belt off the Gulf of Mexico is up and running. Water vapor increases to 1.50 inches, more than 90 percent higher than typical values for this time of year.
That allows dew points to surge into the low 60s by Friday afternoon.
The deep moisture and convergence created by a slow moving cold front will effectively squeeze out what looks to be a heavy rain event over parts of the region. The speed of the system and the track of the surface low points to the area NW of the Quad Cities as the spot for the heaviest rains. Here, intense frontogenetic forcing is like to produce banding where some 1-3" plus totals are possible. That said, all areas will see showers and potentially some thunderstorms with the lower amounts in the far southeast (.50 to 1.00")
By the way, a one inch rain on a singular calendar day would be a big deal for some of my counties in EC Iowa where its been 30 or more days since a rain that large occurred.
Here in Dubuque, the last calendar day with an inch of rain was Sunday August 7th...89 days ago. Dang, that's impressive.
The NWS in the Quad Cities put this graphic out indicating where the odds are greatest of an inch or more of rain.
As for the model output, here's what it's suggesting for rain totals Friday through Saturday.
The National Model Blend
Despite the clouds and rain that arrives Friday, highs will remain well above normal ranging from 65 in the NW to 75 in the SE where the rain starts later. Saturday starts mild but a cold front sweeps through early dropping temperatures with a strong wind shift to the W/SW. By noon most places will be back in the 40s after starting in the low to mid 60s.
We close the weekend out on a much better note Sunday as heights quickly rise as the trough reloads to our west. That allows high temperatures to rebound to levels close to 60. Readings may cool slightly Monday and Tuesday as winds turn more southeasterly. However, come Wednesday and Thursday a more southwesterly component could have us close to 70 once again.
Thursday night or Friday a strong cold front will bring us back to the reality that we are now living in November. Next weekend highs are projected to hold in the 30s as winter gives us a sound reminder that it's on the way.
Take advantage of what promises to be another warm November day...just hold onto your hat! Roll weather...TS