Early September is known for a kinder, gentler brand of weather, especially after the steam of summer. Those shorter days are taking the edge off temperatures and overall there's typically not much in the way of storminess. September is kind of like eating a bowl of vanilla pudding. It's okay but hardly exciting, even with a big blob of Cool-Whip. So it is that we are in one of those periods where the weather gods are content and in a mellow mood. Vanilla pudding for everyone!
We got our first bowl Labor Day, another Tuesday, and by all accounts we'll be dining on pudding into at least Saturday. In layman's terms it means quiet conditions dominated by mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Here's what the EURO is cranking out for temperatures through Saturday.
As you can see there's three days of 84 degree highs coming up. For some perspective, a number like that is about 6 degrees above normal. Here's the departures around the region Thursday afternoon.
However, with dew points remaining in the low to perhaps mid 60s, it should be a comfortable 84. By looking a projected water vapor (PWAT'S), you can see the deeper moisture is channeled off the the northwest ahead of a slow moving cold front. That's where any weather action will be found until the front reaches the central Midwest Saturday night or Sunday.
At that point we may get a piece of pie or some ding dongs (anything but pudding for me) as a cut-off low digs in from the NW changing the pattern for a couple days late weekend and early next week. You can watch the development of the stacked system at 500mb in the animation below. The EURO has the circulation center right over the Quad Cities Monday.
Systems like this are known for being slow movers so expect that. They can also be decent precipitation producers but the place to be is north and west of the circulation center, not directly under it (and the dry slot). What I'm saying is the key to our long term forecast and any sort of rain is going to be directly tied to the ultimate track. Since we are quite some distance from the actual event confidence is low in the final placement and a small change could make a significant distance in how good or poor our weather turns out. As it stands now, the brunt of the rain extends from my far northern counties into Minnesota and Wisconsin. That would leave most of my area with a somewhat warmer and drier solution. Here's what models are suggesting for rain Sunday into Monday night.
The NMB (national model blend)
You may have noticed in that meteogram earlier in the post, readings Monday under the cold pool aloft are only 66 in the Quad Cities. The EPS control at noon is very cool up north with only 50s. A sign of the times ahead.
While temperatures like that are on the table, it's only for those north of the circulation center. My guess is that a chill like that is likely to end up further north. 60s and low 70s are a better bet for us.
One final note, the EURO weeklies show this for snowfall between now and October 21st. You can bet if that verifies cold air will be rapidly intensifying in the polar regions and northern Canada. The question then is when does it find us in the Midwest. Personally, I don't look for much in October. We shall see.
Well then, my time is up and so is this post. Time for some pudding. Happy hump day already and roll weather...TS