WAITING FOR MODELS TO PLAY CATCHUP

In the short term the weather pattern remains very benign. This post is going to mainly look at forecasts for the end of October and early November. While it's a ways out, I think it's the most interesting thing to look at in terms of the weather for our region as the short term will be dominated by warm and dry conditions.

In the European Ensemble forecast above, valid November 2, the pattern is finally showing some signs of life. Notice dual troughs in the jet stream coming at the United States which likely has ties to Typhoon Champi in the far western Pacific. I think, however, the models are too slow with this pattern change and they may not be handling this system well. This may be another case, potentially, of AI models sniffing something out before the rest of the traditional weather models.

Here is the 50-member ensemble for Champi. Notice there is a large amount of agreement here in an impact to Taiwan. The forecast, using what is traditionally the King in forecasting, looks quite high confidence.

Throwing a wrench in that forecast is the Google DeepMind’s AI modeling. This has proven itself to be exceptional in the last two years, most recently with Hurricane Isaias. It takes the system more towards Japan with a faster recurve to the north and northeast. I do believe this is worth watching personally. If this earlier change is in fact accurate, impacts for weather patterns in the United States are more likely sooner rather than later. Thinking 12-14 days at this point.

The EPO forecast on the operational European is showing signs of change in late October. The recent runs are really showing that change looming towards the end of the month. This amplified of a pattern would bring quite a pattern flip for the Upper Midwest with more active and colder weather potentially looming. It is almost November after all.

Negative EPO values have a rather large impact on our region. This reanalysis for October shows quite a significant correlation for colder temperatures with a negative EPO for the eastern half of the CONUS, the larger impacts around the Great Lakes.

The MJO outlook on the European is still around Phase 2/3 going forward which is a warmer signal. I still do not think this is having a full grasp on reality yet. I am still waiting to see if we see this MJO swing more into Phase 8-1-2.

I may not be totally out to lunch with my thinking. I don't love the CFS, however long range it does actually have members out into Phases 7-8-1. It might be catching onto my thought process. It's also quite amplified with those values.

Centered on November, Phases 7-8-1 are the coldest across the Upepr Midwest with pretty high correlations. I want to see more MJO forecasts to center around these. But I think it's, at a minimum, starting to signal for potential changes looming.

I don't have high confidence yet, but it would seem early November could be a cold start based on some of the early data I am seeing and current tropical activity.

In the short term, I hope you're enjoying the warmth! Highs in the 70s are expected through next weekend. Late in the month is when we start looking for some pattern changes, but again, confidence is low at this point.

Enjoy your week!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart