WASN'T THAT SPECIAL...

Wednesday was highly advertised as a day that would be filled with heat and extreme humidity. The day did not disappoint. Temperatures areawide ended up in the range of 91-94, which in itself is plenty hot. Where things really got off the comfort rail was with the vast amounts of low level moisture that were experienced. Dew points, a measure of that variable, reached 76 to 80 degrees. In Lowden, longtime Cedar County weather observer Steve Gottschalk informed me he had 4 consecutive hours when his dew point measured 80 degrees. At one point, his heat index reached 111 degrees. Here's a sampling of maximum Iowa dew points Thursday by way of the Iowa Mesonet.

Here's a sampling of heat index values around the region at 3:00pm. The previous hour, Bloomington, Illinois hit 115 degrees. That is sizzling my friends.

The question everyone wants to be answered is how long does this last? Fortunately, for those NW of the Quad Cities, you have seen the worst of this round of steam. A cold front sagging into northern Iowa overnight has brought the remnants of a line of previously active storms into my northern counties early Thursday. While in a weakening state, the broken storms are shown holding together long enough Thursday morning to dump some spotty rains NW of the Quad Cities. Additionally, the cool outflow and debris clouds will significantly temper the heat in that part of my area.

The HRRR shows the line of storms in my NW counties around 6:00am, advancing SE but rapidly weakening.

The simulated satellite shows the cold clouds tops associated with the storms. The associated downdrafts will tap the cold air aloft and bring it into my NW counties as outflow. The swirl in NW Illinois also indicates a potential MCV (convective vorticity) that could drive storms further SE later in the day.

The HRRR depicts only small pockets of heavier rain through early Thursday from the dissipating convection that cuts across the far NW.

Even so, the precipitation and its rain cooled air has a profound impact on Thursdays temperatures. Come Thursday afternoon, the HRRR indicates temperatures ranging from 84 north to 94 south.

Not only that, Heat Index values should remain below 100 in all but far SE Iowa and WC Illinois, where they will still be oppressive. They may never reach 90 in the far northwest.

As of Wednesday night, the NWS has a heat advisory in effect for all the area through the day Thursday. If the HRRR is correct, much of the area NW of the Quad Cities will not reach advisory category, and I would expect that part of my region area will be released from the advisory by daybreak.

Far southeast Iowa and WC Illinois will not be so lucky. The front runs out of steam and the dissipation of the morning convection means the cooling will not reach that part of my area and heat and humidity will still be problematic, and the heat advisory will be maintained for heat index values of 100 (perhaps 103 in the far southeast).

Towards evening, differential heating and a potential MCV should spark new storms along the outflow boundary and diffuse front over SE Iowa and WC Illinois. A few strong storms are possible, but the primary threat will be heavy rains with water vapor well over 2 inches in that area Thursday night.

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THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

Models continue to show minimal movement of the front as it meanders across the south into Saturday. As long as it's in the region, scattered showers and storms will continue to be a possibility Thursday night through Saturday. At this time, the southern half of my area may have the best chance of seeing the heavier rain in this set up. That said, the EURO is further north with the potential, so there is still uncertainty regarding how the rain threat plays out. Most certainly, the threat of locally heavy rains exists as the ring of fire remains in play. You can see the difference in the location of the heavier rain totals between the EURO and GFS below.

The EURO

The GFS

As for temperatures, Friday looks cooler areawide, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Saturday and Sunday readings gradually increase and by early next week we should be back around 90. The one day that may be free of shower and storm chances is Sunday, as a fairly energetic and active pattern for mid-July continues.

That's the latest and greatest for now. Roll weather...TS