WE'RE COOKING NOW...
We were in the kitchen Tuesday with all the burners on. But, it wasn't so much the heat as it was the humidity that made it uncomfortable. Dew points were in the low 70s, about as high as they've been all year. Toss that air mass into temperatures around 90 and you've got yourself some spicy soup! In fact, the heat index in SE Iowa (how it felt) reached as high as 103 near Keokuk. Take a look.
Here's those juicy dew points which were enhanced by the maturing corn crop, a process known as evapotranspiration. The corn actually sweats to keep itself cool. That moisture (water vapor) is transferred to the atmosphere. The price we pay for having such rich bountiful farmland...
At any rate, we are now into a classic summer pattern that contains moisture, heat, and the potential for a couple periods of thunderstorms. Below you can see the core of the heat dome at 500mb established over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The Midwest is on the northern periphery of the heat. That's the spot where ridge riding disturbances can skim the rim of the hot air generating thunderstorm clusters.
Further south, hot air aloft provides strong subsidence and a CAP that thwarts thunderstorm development. That's within the core of the heat wave as evidenced by highs of 100-105 from Kansas into the NW half of Texas.
The remainder of this week with the central Midwest on the edge of the heat, the challenge is determining where the CAP resides. Do we stay hot, muggy and dry, or do we catch any of those ridge riding storms on the periphery of the heat? If so, how do storm remnants such as debris clouds and outflow boundaries impact temperatures?
WEDNESDAY
As it stands now, storm chances Wednesday should be early in the day and primarily over the far north where readings could struggle to get much above 90 "if" storms can fester . Some models keep that area dry so confidence is low that storms will even breach the north. Further south the CAP should be strong allowing a very warm rain free day with highs well into the low to mid 90s, hottest in the south.
Heat index readings of 101-107 are indicated.
The NWS has issued a heat advisory for my southern counties on Wednesday.
THURSDAY
Thursday, most guidance indicates a formidable CAP in place with only minimal storm chances until the overnight. That should result in another very steamy day with dew points again in the range of 69-73. Here's what the EURO indicates for highs Thursday.
It's heat index values look like this. Heat advisories are still a good bet in parts of the area.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
Thursday night and Friday a boundary/cool front is expected to drift into my northern counties bringing with it a more organized threat of showers and storms. These could come in a couple waves. One, late Thursday night Friday morning. The second Friday night. Mesoscale details unknown at this distance will determine the placement and intensity of any convection. Water vapor (PWAT's) are shown exceeding 2 inches so any storms that can fire have the potential to dump localized downpours of an inch or two.
Significant CAPE (instability) will also exist so strong storms will also be a threat. Much will depend on the timing of the front but with the tropical environment ahead of it (dewpoints in the mid 70s), storms could be active well into the night. Highs Friday should remain in the 90s but the heat could be tempered in spots if early morning convection exists or debris clouds linger. That's the broad-brush approach for now.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
Saturday and Sunday the cool front is expected to pass south of the region where it will stall and dissipate in northern Missouri. Weak high pressure is expected to produce cooler temperatures and somewhat lower humidity as the heat is suppressed to the south. Early next week the front is expected to be in close proximity which means the ring of fie would be in play along with the possibility of more storms. Plenty of time to figure that situation out.
In summation, there is high confidence that very warm humid weather is expected to be with us through the remainder of the week. Highs will primarily be in the low to mid 90s but heat index values may exceed 100 every day, especially near and south of I-80. Confidence is far lower in rainfall chances due to the proximity of the CAP and its ability to suppress storms. If they do occur the far north would have the best chances through Thursday night. Friday night seems to be the best opportunity for a more widespread rain threat that could include some strong storms. Something I will be monitoring in coming days.
That's all for now. Ride low and slow and keep your cool. Roll weather...TS
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