WEEKEND SNOW, HELTER SKELTER

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YOUR MESSAGES ARE APPRECIATED...

Thank you for the words of support and encouragement regarding my efforts to forecast the recent storm. It's very refreshing to see the positive approach is alive and well. Your kind comments certainly have me inspired and motivated to keep plugging away. A little respect and love goes a long way. It just makes the world a better place.

NEXT STORM UP

By now, most of you are aware that the potential exists for more snow as early as late Friday. In fact, I am sure there is going to be some, but this one is currently not showing its hand the way I would like. Phasing appears to be the issue (how energy is bundled) and that is something that needs to be sorted out in short order.

First things first, as the system ejects from the Plains, an initial shortwave will drive warm advection snow that arrives late in the day and into the evening Friday. The best and most prolonged forcing appears to be north of I-80 with some models keeping saturation and snowfall confined to the far north. Snow totals vary considerably depending on various model solutions. A middle ground solution would be amounts of an inch or so along I-80 to as much as 3 inches in the far north along HWY 20.

Further south, some light snow or even some sort of mix is anticipated, but accumulations south of I-80 appear minimal (under an inch) and lighter the further south you go towards the Missouri border.

With the warm advection lifting north by midnight, precipitation in all areas will diminish and likely end, aside from some flurries or pockets of freezing drizzle. That will be it for wave 1.

The second part of the system is very low confidence, owing to the fact phasing comes into play. The GFS has more of it and develops a classic looking deformation band with the potential for more accumulating snow, especially from the Quad Cities northwest.

The EURO just doesn't ramp the system up as much. Being flatter it tracks a little further southeast, but more important struggles to get the deformation band snows going. What snow it does develop, is lighter and further southeast.

The implications for Saturday are that the GFS shows another 2–5 inches of snow northwest of the Quad Cities. Further southeast, amounts radically decrease in the dry slot.

However, if the EURO is right, Saturday has little more than occasional light snow or flurries NW of the Quad Cities, while from there southeast, 1-3" of snow could fall (heaviest the further SE you go). It's almost a complete reversal of solutions.

The 10K Canadian GEM looks similar to the GFS. THE HRRR shows the Saturday snow even further NW than the GFS or 10K. So much so, that its heavier snow misses my area altogether.

Considering we are only 48 hours away from the first wave, there is a lot of noise in the pattern, driving more chaos than usual. I, for one, do not want to discount the EURO solution on Saturday. It beat the tar out of the GFS with Wednesday's storm. On the other hand, the GFS has more consistency with the other models discussed, such as the HRRR and 10K GEM. I feel the first round of snow later Friday is pretty well-supported near and north of I-80. I'm really uncertain about Saturday. You put the Friday and Saturday snow together, and you come up with these snowfall forecasts. For now, I would be very cautious of any solution Saturday and look for a more broad brush compromise. Right now, it's helter-skelter.

The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR The model only runs through midday Saturday reflect totals from the entire event Saturday.

The 10K GEM

The NBM (National Blend of Models)

This is the official NWS forecast, but only goes through Saturday morning at 6:00am. Thus, this is only the Friday night totals.

Wish I had a better feeling for the Saturday part of the forecast. It could really be a nice snow for parts of the north, or basically a nothingburger if the EURO is right. Don't underestimate the king, the EURO wears a crown for a reason. More to come. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS