WELL ISN'T THIS SPECIAL...
Just before noon Friday I was taking out the garbage and it was all nice and warm, muggy too. A few hours later temperatures were in the 60s and the dew point had crashed from 69 to 51 (it's now 45). You could feel the transition to cooler weather was well underway. That my friends is the cold front that will keep things nice and fresh the rest of the weekend. The front is also dividing winter from summer. Readings in Colorado, where snow was falling and winter storm warnings were flying were in the 30s. At the same time, temperatures from central Missouri to the east coast were in the 80s and 90s.
5:00pm readings Friday were 15 -25 degrees colder than 24 hours earlier. Check out Denver, Colorado. Temperatures there in the snow were 50 degrees colder than yesterday. That's the chilly air mass that's moving in as we speak.
With strong cold air advection ongoing Saturday it looks as though we are in for a cloudy cool day. Adding insult will be some occasional light showers or drizzle. Rain totals will be light with most areas seeing 1/10th of an inch or less. Just enough to be a nuisance. The GFS suggests this for rain totals Saturday.
Of more importance will be the temperatures which should be limited to the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs like that are 20-25 degrees below normal....grrrrr, I'm done with that.
Clouds are expected to depart Saturday night allowing temperatures to get back into the 30s over much of the region. Fortunately the short nights this time of year will keep us from hitting the freezing mark but a little patchy light frost is possible in some of the valley locations of EC Iowa and NW Illinois. The 3k shows this for lows.
Sunday starts sunny but the cold air aloft will generate a cumulus field in the afternoon. It will be most pronounced in the far north. That is likely to hold highs there to the upper 50s. The rest of the area should hit the low 60s.
Monday is a dry day but temperatures will again be far short of normal despite party sunny skies. Highs are expected to remain in the low to mid 60s.
That brings us to our next storm which looks to be a slow mover. It appears to also have good dynamics and enough moisture to bring what should be a widespread soaking rain to much of the central Midwest.
Unfortunately, this is one of those systems more typical of winter with a surface low that tracks southeast of my area. That puts us in the deformation zone with a low overcast and northeast winds that will drive very cool temperatures, especially with rain falling. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be stuck in the upper 50s NW to the low 60s SE.
As for rain totals, models for now are in a generous mode indicated moderate to heavy amounts of an inch or more in many locations. Assuming the track remains consistent I don't think that's out of line. Here's what the early numbers look like.
The EURO
The GFS
The Climate Prediction Center does show the southeast 2/3rds of my area in its heavy rain hazards outlook.
CPC also shows this for potential rains during the Tuesday/Wednesday period.
After that, models have been reasonably consistent showing the system lifting out of the Midwest late week allowing for a good start to the Memorial Weekend holiday period. For quite some time I've been pushing the idea of mild temperatures and I see nothing to change my perspective so far. The Climate Prediction Center is in agreement showing above normal temperatures for the period Saturday May 28th through Wednesday June 1st. Rainfall is depicted as near to below normal. I would take that in a heartbeat, especially a week away.
One thing is for sure, we've got ups, downs, and all arounds when it comes to the conditions we'll experience over the next week or so. Isn't that special. Have a terrific weekend everybody and as always, roll weather...TS
