WHAT A DAY FOR A DAYDREAM...
A typical mid-November day in the heart of my area sees highs around 48 with a low near 29. Based on that there was nothing typical about Monday with highs areawide of 60-65 degrees. Sunshine was also wall to wall and in general, that grades out as a number 10 day November day. What a day for a daydream!
Here's a look at Monday's late day temperatures. As far north as the Canadian border readings were in the mid 40s.
You can see any moisture and rain producing clouds are tied up over the southern U.S. where some much needed rain was found.
Note the ridge in red over the Upper Midwest that is keeping things nice and mild.
The ridge remains in tact through Thursday promising 3 more days of highs in the 60s. Below you can see the temperature departures for Wednesday. That's a day where a few places in the south may give 70 a run for its money.
CHANGES IN THE WORKS...
Even as we enjoy this fabulous weather the next few days, the atmosphere is undergoing a realignment that promises a return to more typical temperatures by the end of the week and potentially a much stronger push of cold air around Thnksgiving or just beyond.
The first wave of the cooling trend is expected Thursday night when a healthy cold front enters the region.
It should have just enough moisture for a period of showers as it makes its way southeast. Due to the fast movement and limitied moisture, rains are very light. Most amounts should end up little more than a trace. maybe .01 or .02". The GFS shows a dry frontal passage. That is certainly possible.
The EURO
The GFS
By daybreak Friday temperatures will sink into the 30s and struggle to go up much during the day. Late Friday afternoon readings are 22-25 degrees colder than just 24 hours earlier. Wind chills will likely be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The party is over for this round of Indian Summer.
This leads to a chilly but rather typical weekend of weather with dry conditions and temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
What happens after that is a bit uncertain but the general idea is for a northwest flow pattern that has access to cold air. The latest trends show a stronger push of cold air is likely near or just after Thanksgiving. Some models even hint at a bit of light snow or snow showers but that is something that is very low confidence and not an impact to count on at this distance. The one thing that could modify this cold look is if guidance backs off on phasing. In split flow patterns like we are in now, that is a known model caveat that I will be watching intently.
Last but not least, I was looking at teleconnections to see if they support the idea of cold and wintry weather in the long range period. The EURO Weeklies which go out through December 28th are quite interesting. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is certainly on board for colder weather indicating a negative phase developing much of the next 46 days, especially the control. The dive into negative territory begins this weekend.
The negative AO brings a weakening of the westerlies allowing Arctic air access to the mid latitudes like the Midwest.
Then there's the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation). It too is trending strongly negative towards the end of the weekend.
The negative EPO is associated with ridging over the west and a buckled jet that delivers cold east of the Rockies.
Finally the PNA (Pacific North America) comes out of its mild negative phase and surges into a lengthy positive and cold phase pretty much the whole month of December
The positive PNA is much like the negative EPO in terms of a highly amplified flow that delivers cold central and east.
The only issue I see right now that is firmly not in a cold state in early December is the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). It is in cold phases 8 and 1 through the end of November and then is shown inching into 2 which which is a milder analog in December. This may be just a short cycle as the other teleconnections above would imply December has the potential to be cold on average. So this is where things get dicey with this strange El Nino and my uncertainty as to how it impacts the winter. I want to stress that (I'm not all in on the teleconnections yet) despite the favorable leaning towards cold. Split flow and phasing is again the way out of this set-up. If we phase, the cold should come. If the split wins out or phasing is too far east, this brings a far more modest brand of cold. Time will tell.
Meantime, the means of the Weeklies show this for snow between Thanksgiving week and December 28th.
The control is even more impressive with some big snow numbers. I will be plesantly surprised if anything close to this verifies.
Anyway, things look nice through Thursday and then the ball begins to roll. Where it ends up is anybodys guess. Roll weather...TS
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