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WHEN IT RAINS, IT POURS! MORE TO COME...

THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULD. So far 199 of you have made a voluntary $12 dollar donation to TSwails.com. If we can double that number to 400, this little engine keeps chugging and the train keeps rolling. Thanks to your generous donations to date, we are on our way and with a little more help we're going to achieve our goal. All I'm asking is that if you enjoy the site and see value in it, please consider a voluntary subscription. I'm asking $12.00 dollars for a year. That's $1 dollar a month or 3 cents a blog if you consider the fact there were 450 posts issued over the past year. The site requires a significant commitment of time and resources and every donation, whatever the size is deeply appreciated. I just need a little help to cover the expenses. Click on the link below if you can assist or or need additional information. I thank you for your support and consideration.

WHAT A STORM...

Sunday's storm was a ripper. Had that been a month or so later that could have been a full fledged blizzard. The track was perfect and the 1 to 3 inches of rain would have resulted in many areas with 1 to 2 feet of snow. Toss in E/NE winds that gusted 45 to 50 and we would have had ourselves a time!


As it was, the storm was just what the doctor ordered for my northern counties which were enduring moderate drought conditions. Here's a breakdown of 24 hour rain reports through early Monday morning. These are not the complete totals but are in the ballpark.

Every part of my area saw amounts of at least 1 inch with many other spots in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. The yellow colors below represent rainfall of at least an inch and a half.

All the way from SE Nebraska to northern Indiana rains were prolific. The whole central Midwest had themselves a soaker.

The 1.96" of rain measured at the NWS office in Davenport puts this event in the top 5% of late October rainfalls.

With the storm departing Monday skies cleared and overnight temperatures have dipped to frosty levels. Some spots are hovering around freezing. Going into Monday night, all the colored dots indicate where temperatures have reached or fallen below 32 degrees so far. As you can see, my southern counties and points SE have yet to see a freeze at the time of this post.

With a ridge of high pressure situated over the Midwest Tuesday it will be a bright, crisp day with light SE winds and seasonal temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Great to enjoy the fall colors which are late but coming on.


THE NEXT STORM UP

Tuesday night clouds begin to advance on the area as the next powerhouse storm off the Pacific wave train spins across the nation. On the satellite you can see the energy pouring into the NW United States with moisture also entering Mexico and SW Texas on the sub-tropical jet.

The 500mb jet stream animation shows the evolution of the upper air energy as it comes out of the west and transitions to a closed low south of the Midwest.

It appears now that rain will hold off until Wednesday night in my area when the system can overcome the effects of dry air. At that point, clouds and occasional showers will impact the region into much of Friday. Unlike, the previous storm, this one's track and dynamics will not be as favorable for high end rain production. However, at the very least moderate rains appear likely, especially in the SW half of my area. Here's what the GFS, EURO, and WPC rainfall output looks like for the event. Actually there is very good consistency for this stage of the game.


The EURO

The GFS

WPC

Temperatures will also stay cool the remainder of the work week. In fact, readings should actually go down as we get into the heavier clouds and showers Thursday and Friday. Highs go from the mid to upper 50s Wednesday to the low to mid 50s Thursday. Friday readings might struggle to get out of the upper 40s.


There is good news for Halloween weekend. Sunshine and dry weather returns along with highs of 55 to 60. Ghosts, goblins, and demons beware, it will cool quickly after sunset.


That gets me into the long range and I've been seeing consistent trends in teleconnections that a cold period is in the making the first week of November. That might be the switch that opens the door for winter. The 46 day mean EURO weekly temperatures look like this through December 10th. On the surface that doesn't look much worse than average but one must keep in mind the EURO has a very difficult time seeing cold air. My interpretation is that there is a good chance this period turns out colder.

The EURO control shows the first wave a cold with temperature departures like this November 2nd-7th. It's coming.

Notice too, that with the cold the model is also sniffing snow. Here is the mean 46 day snowfall prediction. Most of this would likely occur in later November or December. No way to know but the general idea is that the snow pack is really building in Canada and the northern tier of the U.S the next 6 weeks. That keeps those cold air masses that can make into the Midwest nice and fresh.

That's a wrap for this addition. Thanks for your time and if you appreciate the site please consider a donation by clicking the link below. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather...TS

By the way, I wanted to heartily thank local cartoonist Jim Allen for his work on my new fund raising banner. Jim has produced numerous gag cartoons for magazines. His editorial cartoons have been syndicated by the Chicago Sun Times Syndicate. He is the creator of the Beaufort's comic strip on Gocomics. He has also produced several other cartoon books and comics. Jim contacted me and asked if I'd like a snazzy banner and he came up with "yours truly" in the uncle Sam outfit. Not a bad look if I say so myself. For more on Jim's work go to http://www.thebeauforts.com

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