WINNERS AND LOSERS

Somebody's good weather is somebody else's bad. That's the way it is and always has been. We saw that play out across the area once again Thursday. Warm moist air advecting in from the south sent a warm front about halfway through the region. On the nose of the boundary and areas northeast, clouds and occasional showers and thunderstorms prevailed. In what's considered the cold sector, temperatures here at 3:00pm were only in the 50s. South of the warm front, some mixed sunshine and a warmer air mass allowed temperatures to blast into the 70s in the SW half of my area. Here's the resulting 25 degree contrast. (Were you a warmth winner, a cold loser, or somewhere in between)?

I also mentioned some rain, which was most prevalent over the northern 2/3rds of my area. Where you see the green, amounts of 1/2 inch or more occurred Friday, and it was well received.

Thursday evening, the boundary remains stretched out across Iowa, with a cold front entering western Iowa. That produced intense thunderstorms in SW Iowa with large hail and several confirmed tornadoes. Near Mcclelland, Iowa, 4" softball size hail was reported. The radar image, taken around 8:30pm, shows two large supercells between Omaha and Des Moines, both with tornado warnings.

The southern storm had a PDS tornado warning, (particularly dangerous situation with a catastrophic damage tag). The tornado couplet near Essex, Iowa.

Over SC Iowa near and south of the warm front, surface based storms capable of all modes of severe weather began to weaken by midnight. After that, the storms ran into more stable air in SE Iowa and steadily fell apart before dissipating.

Near and north of the stationary boundary, a secondary area of elevated storms developed, with the low level jet increasing overnight. That generated another localized band of heavy rain, impacting northern Iowa.

This produced a split in the rains, with the southern band dying out as it hit SE Iowa. The northern band remained just north of HWY 20 as it streaked across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. The end result is that the majority of Thursday night's rains avoided my area. Something we've become good at accomplishing the last few months.

Friday morning, a few lingering showers should exit the north early. After that, we await a cold front that should cross the Mississippi around midday. The speed of the front will determine if any additional storms can fire in my eastern counties in the afternoon. Most spots will stay dry. I will continue a chance far SE Iowa and WC Illinois (southeast of the Quad Cities), but it looks to me like the best opportunity for anything significant will be higher east of my area in central Illinois. Something to keep an eye on Friday, especially considering the amount of heating that is shown in the EURO. From the Mississippi east, highs on the EURO are near or into the low 80s. The NW is a little cooler due to an earlier frontal passage.

EASTER WEEKEND, NOT THE GREATEST...

For the most part, I have not noticed any changes in trends over the past 24 hours. That leaves us between storms and under the influence of a weak high pressure Saturday. While it will be cooler, a dry spring day is anticipated. Highs should range from around 57 north to 63 south, making for cool but pleasant conditions.

Easter Sunday, the area comes under attack from a healthy storm that quickly lifts out of Oklahoma into central Iowa Sunday night. Here's how I see it playing out.

SUNDAY MORNING 7:00AM

Stiff ESE winds are blowing with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures chilly. 43 north to 49 south.

SUNDAY NOON

Light showers, sprinkles or drizzle begin to break out, especially across the south. Raw winds continue from the E/SE with temperatures having moved little since morning ranging from 46 north to 50 south.

SUNDAY EVENING 7:00PM

Light to moderate rains have overspread the region. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible south of I-80. Winds are more southeasterly and quite gusty. Temperatures in the north are cold around 45. Further south, readings have warmed into the range of 50-55 as the approaching storm advects some slightly warmer air into this part of the region. At midnight, readings will be at their warmest as a warm front approaches SE Iowa. They should range roughly from 48 north to 62 south. Showers and a few storms look to be active. Nothing severe.

Both the GFS and EURO are in agreement that rainfall should be beneficial and widespread. Totals Sunday through Sunday night should range from 3/4" to 1.25". A couple spots might do a bit better. The GFS does show a dry slot cutting into rain totals in my central counties. That's not out of the question and will be defined in later forecasts when the precise track of the surface low is more defined.

The EURO

The GFS

Temperatures cool behind the system Monday, but rain is generally gone by daybreak, outside a few showers early in the north. After readings of 55 to 60 Monday, much warmer air returns for Tuesday, with highs potentially reaching 70-75. (I heartily endorse those numbers)! Have a great weekend and a hopping good Easter. Roll weather...TS