top of page
thumbnail_1 ts baner, future in your hands.png

WINTER SEVERITY, WHERE WE STAND...

The winter season has significant societal impacts on us all ranging from our health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and even education. The question “How severe was this winter?” is a complex one without a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season.


Here's where the index currently stands with more than half the winter still ahead of us. As you can see on the scale at left, so far the winter in my immediate area has been average to moderate. In other words, tolerable. That has not been the case to our NW where persistent cold and heavy snows through the northern Plains and upper Midwest have created extreme to severe conditions...not all that far away

Here's some additional information about the how and why the index is calibrated.


For purposes of comparison, here's the AWSSI value in the Quad Cities 52 days into the season vs. Bismarck, North Dakota below. The 156 index locally makes this winter a 2 compared to the 5 levels outlined on the index. The winter in Bismarck has been so extreme that the AWSSI there is the highest ever recorded in a winter at 945. Winter started early in North Dakota and has been unrelenting ever since.


Moline, IL.

Bismarck, N.D.

One to 3 feet of snow still blankets most of North Dakota with some of the heaviest depths from Devils Lake to Jamestown (28-32"). The water equivalent is as high as 6.5 inches. For the past 30 days, most of North Dakota's temperatures are been running 6 -12 degrees below normal, that's per day! Here are the state's reported snow depths as of January 6th

Outside of a cold snap the first half of November and the Arctic blast around Christmas, we've done well around here. Look at the start we are off to the first 6 days of January.

And, that winter severity index will continue to improve as the next 15 days remain mild. Here's the week 1 temperature departures on the EURO the 6-13th.

Week 2 is even warmer with departures such as this January 14-21st. Even North Dakota is above normal despite all the deep snow cover. Really impressive for what is typically the coldest time of the year. This will save us all some money on the old heating bills.

What's really remarkable about this pattern is that it will be occurring in the cold phases of the MJO. You can see the rotation through 8, 1, and 2 the last half of January.

Here's the temperature analogs for 8, 1, and 2. Cold across the board.

Very rarely have I seen an MJO rotation like this in January where we did not get into some healthy cold air. I did some digging around and only 2 times in recent history have I been able to find warm January readings with cold MJO cycles and similar sea surface temperatures, January 2017 and January 1998.


2017

1998

There's always exceptions to the rule and maybe 2023 is one of them. Since we haven't gotten into 8 yet maybe models will respond colder in a few days once that happens. It's on the table. But, at least for now, I sure don't see any threat of real cold air before January 21st at the earliest.


SPECIAL DEALS ON MY PLACE IN GALENA

My new Airbnb is open just north of Galena. It's a beautiful place, close to skiing in Galena and Dubuque. It has amazing views, is brand new, and just a hop skip and a jump from all the great shops and restaurants Galena has to offer. The place can sleep 10 and during the winter season we can offer some fantastic deals. Right now our rates are some of the lowest in the region as we grow our business. Grab some friends or family and make the trip. I'll even throw in a free visit. Click on the link below and contact Car