WINTER STORM WATCH...
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WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE POOTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW
The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for the NW half of my area late Wednesday Thursday, precisely the area I projected in my post Monday night.
Snow is not expected to develop until late Wednesday night (after 3:00am) and will continue much of the day Thursday before diminishing and ending early Thursday evening. Gusty northeast winds will also create some blowing snow, especially in open areas as temparatures fall and snow ratios increase over time. Some areas, especially southeast of the Quad Cities may see a brief period of freezing rain or sleet before a transiton to snow.
Here's the official NWS snowfall forecast. It does indicate large spreads in the high and low ranges for specific locations. I assume that is due to some uncertainty in the final track.
Here are the odds of a 2, 6, or 8 inch snowfall.
2 or more inches
6 or more inches
8 or more inches.
Here are what the latest models are suggesting for snowfall amounts. To be clear, these are not forecasts, just raw model output that is used to detect trends and create forecasts.
The GFS
The EURO
The Canadian RGEM
There is very good agreement on the 2" line depiction on the southest fringe of the snowband. The NW fringe is considerably further northwest on the GFS and EURO than what is depicted in the winter storm watches. If that trend holds, they would need to be extended further northwest. Also, the GFS is significantly heavier than the other models, especially NW of a line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque and on to Madison. I suspect it's overdone but if some banding kicks in a few 8-9" totals could show up in that area.
We still have room for some minor changes but it does appear models are settling in on a solution that brings widespread 4-7" accumulations to the NW half of my area. Further southeast of the Quad Cities 1-3" totals look good.
More on the latest trends in my next post later tonight. Roll weather....TS
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