WORKING UP A LATHER, AGAIN...
It will be a slow steady process but more heat is on the horizon and it's just a matter of time before we find ourselves in the midst of it. While it won't be as bad as what we saw last week, especially in terms of humidity, multiple days in the 90s are on the table. In fact, if the EURO is correct it cranks out 5 consecutive 90 degrees days beginning as early as Saturday in the Quad Cities.
As usual the GFS is fat and inflated and unusable unless you take about 10 degrees off every day. For what it's worth, here's what it shows. One value it still has is showing the trend of well above normal temperatures into mid-September.
This 6 day animation shows ridging again increasing over the central U.S. That will drive the coming heat and see to it that precipitation remains well to the north.
Here's the week 1 temperature departures ending September 5th on the EURO. This of course includes the Labor Day holiday weekend which will be toasty.
Here's the week 2 temperature departures which are even warmer through the interior of the nation.
CPC includes my region in either a slight to moderate risk of excessive heat throughout the period September 6-12th
The CPC 6-10 day outlook (as one would expect) targets the Midwest with the core of the above normal readings.
That brings us to the concerning aspect of the forecast which is the lack of precipitation potential going forward. Much of the next 10 days moisture is either limited or forcing is lacking. The building heat dome will also promote subsidence and basically that's three strikes and you're out in the rain game. Just look at the dew points Friday in the upper 40s to low 50s. While that dry air feels good it won't get the job done when it comes to precipitation.
Here's what the EURO shows for rain through Tuesday of next week.
Going out two weeks, the EURO indicates rainfall deficits reaching close to 2 inches.
At the earliest the next shot at any rain appears to be next Tuesday night or Wednesday. Assuming we go that long we would have amassed a 21 day streak with no measurable rain in about 90 percent of my area. That is a really hard thing to do.
Add more heat to the dry conditions over that period and drought is going to expand significantly in many parts of the Midwest. The corn and beans will be drying fast.
Meantime, as we await the build-up of heat, Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up to be outstanding days. Along with abundant sunshine, highs will be in the 70s and lows well into the 50s. Humidity will not exist and that is a fantastic way to end up the month of August. Roll weather everybody....TS
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