© 2019 Terry Swails

SNOWFLAKES RETURN FOR SOME...

January 24, 2017

 

Since my last post a winter storm watch has been issued for some parts of the Midwest. It’s for a gathering system that will bring wet snow accumulations, especially Tuesday night and early Wednesday. You can see the broad area under the watch below in blue.

 

Here’s a closer view of some of the counties involved in the watch.

 

For the majority of my forecast area it appears that this will be primarily a rain event, at least until the very end of the storm. Here you can see the familiar track of the system the GFS forecasts right into eastern Iowa.

 

That puts the southeastern 2/3rds of my region in the warm sector and highs will probably hit 40 or above in that area. Here’s what the GFS shows for total precipitation.

Northwest of the low where temperatures will be just cold enough, snow will be the preferred form of precipitation. The GFS has this for total snowfall. It’s still a bit early to get precise on the amounts as the track could still change. However, I think the GFS looks pretty solid at this point in the game.

 

The WRF has this for total snowfall.

 The solution with the most southern track is portrayed by the EURO. You can see in its surface depiction the low pressure center is about 100 miles further south and a bit slower than the GFS.

 This puts the southern extent of the snow further into my area (roughly down to HWY 20). Thus its snow forecast involves a couple more or my area counties than the GFS.

 

Due to the lack of cold air in place I just have a problem with what the EURO is doing. I hate to go against the model at this distance but I really think its too far south on the heavier snows. If it comes in the same tomorrow, I’ll make the necessary last minute adjustments.

Whatever happens, once the system departs, gusty winds and noticeably colder weather returns. Highs by Thursday will fall below normal for the first time in 11 days here in Cedar Rapids.  Woohoo! Roll weather…TS

 

 

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