- Feb 26, 2017

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES...

There has been more action the last five days than there has been in the past month. And the active pattern will continue. First, check this out - high resolution satellite data showing the sharp cutoff between snow and bare ground.

This snow did not really put a dent in the snow drought much of the middle/southern Midwest has been in. Pretty much everyone in the Midwest is near and below normal on snowfall with the exception of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, as seen below:

Considering how warm it's been, it's not surprising we're over a foot behind on snowfall. The battle is not yet over, my friends!

We can still get snow in March... even in April! Below are the average dates of the last inch of snowfall:

We are in for a more active pattern around the Midwest and a period with plenty of temperature swings. The combination of both will lead to difficulties in determining precipitation type and amounts.

The reason why it will be more active is because we will be in the "fight", so to speak, in between a trough and ridge. That's typically where the storms will track. Here's Tuesday morning in the upper levels of the atmosphere:

Since we are under the ridge during the beginning of this week, temperatures will be warming up in the the 40s and 50s Sunday through Tuesday. Then, the first storm arrives Tuesday. Here's the surface pattern on the GFS:

On the European:

There are some differences on the intensity of the system, but both start off as rain and eventually transition to snow, especially in parts Minnesota and Wisconsin.The output with precipitation and snowfall isn't overly impressive... but we'll take what we can get.