UPGRADED TO A MODERATE

Terry mentioned last night some areas could be upgraded to a moderate and it has happened with the 11 am update from the Storm Prediction Center. Temperatures are climbing into the 60s and will head into the 70s this afternoon.

Dew points will be into the 50s and 60s and instability will be growing. Additionally there will be a lot of wind shear in the atmosphere (rotation) which will support a tornado threat. A threat that has grown and could be a concern well into the overnight hours tonight. Here's the latest tornado probabilities from the SPC:

Where the hash marks are, that's where the greatest risk lies for tornadoes. The SPC in their forecast today even states "This includes the potential for nocturnal significant tornadoes, and tornado probabilities have been increased."

Here's a simulation of what the storms could look like this afternoon on the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model through 3 AM:

Storms will likely still be ongoing and still be strong through the night in Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio. An incredibly strong and a pretty rare situation will likely unfold later today. Definitely a day to stay aware.

RK