UPDATE ON STORMS AND HAIL THREAT TONIGHT...
The Storm Prediction Center has continued its risk outlook for some marginally severe storms Sunday night over eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.
These will be elevated storms and aside from hail generating updrafts are not likely to produce any other modes of severe weather. Most of the hail (if it occurs) should be an inch in diameter or less. SPC paints the greatest risk of hail in brown below.
The late morning discussion from SPC reads like this.
The latest CAPE (convective available potential energy) forecast off the EURO still shows a fair amount of instability in the region at midnight with CAPE greater than 2,000 J/kg.
The latest HRRR has the storms kicking off after dark. Here they are on simulated radar at midnight ahead of an advancing short wave and warm front just north of I-80.
For the most part the GFS keeps rainfall totals around 1/4" or less. However, with thunderstorms there may be local spots that pick up an inch in the stronger cells. Right now the GFS shows the greatest risk of the heavier rains over SE Iowa, especially over Washington, County Iowa.
That's where things stand at this hour. I'll be focused on the radar around sunset when the low level jet starts kicking in. Until then have a terrific Sunday and roll weather...TS