CHASING TWISTERS...

March 10th is not the typical time of year to be tooling down the highway in search of a twister. Yet, that is where I found myself Tuesday morning, sailing down Route 61 towards a target somewhere E/SE of the Quad Cities. While the sun was out when I left, the temperature was just 41 degrees when I exited the city limits of Dubuque, (far from tornado weather). Where I was headed, robust readings around 80 were expected with unusual amounts of humidity. That contrast is one of the catalysts driving whatever storms I would encounter later in the day. I was excited, the severe weather season was getting off to a fast and early start. I felt like a cowboy baby.

Progressing south of Maquoketa, I went from sunshine to a heavy deck of dark low stratus. A NE wind was flapping the flag flying over town. Warm air advection was driving the overcast. 30 minutes later around 12:30pm., I arrived at the Kwik Star on Brady Street in the Quad Cities. My car thermometer was parked at 51 with low clouds and drizzle falling. I'm about to hook up with my chase partner the esteemed Dr. Pravin Gupta, now retired and a storm chasing enthusiast. He drives, I navigate and do model analysis.

Waiting for him, the late morning SPC risk outlook came in with positive news for a chaser. Just east of the Quad Cities a moderate level 4 risk of tornadoes and very large hail has been issued. It stated, a significant risk existed for multiple strong to intense tornadoes by late afternoon. Suddenly, I can feel the adreniline pumping. I also say to myself, this could be a dangerous set-up. We need to be on our game and well positioned. I could see long tracked tornadoes with the ability to be destructive and deadly. We can't afford to make a mistake on a storm like that.

One of the major concerns of the day was large hail. This is not a chase to core punch. We must remain on the SW side of any supercell to avoid the hail that could be larger than golf balls. They can knock out the vehicles windows and severely damage the exterior. That would not make the the good doctor Gupta happy. It also ends the chase rather abruptly. (Note:) By late evening many reports of hail were found in eastern Iowa and Illinois. Some as large as tennis balls indicated near Iowa City. In Kankakee, Illinois, a 6" diameter hailstone was confirmed. My sources tell me that is the largest hailstorm (by more than an inch), to ever be witnessed in Illinois history.

Shortly after, I checked the supercell composite index forecast for 5:00pm. It showed a level of 20 from Galesburg east. Odds of a rotating mesocyclones were high. A discrete supercell was likely within the 20 contour by evening. That's a definite target zone.

Also at that time, the sigtor is 5+ . Chances of a significant tornado in that general region were substantial. So far so good on paper.

It's going on 3:00pm and SPC just put out a mesoscale discussion for storm initiation in the yellow oval. I'm in the center of it near Galesburg, right where I wanted to be. At the bottom highlighted in yellow, SPC forecasters again mention the threat of multiple intense tornadoes existed, along with hail of 2 to 3.50 inches. The next step would be the issuance of a tornado watch, which in the discussion below was a 95 percent likelihood. Once that is pushed, storms usually follow quickly.

Sitting and waiting for storms to develop in the parking lot of a Love's gas station in Knoxville, a guy pulled in from Wisconsin named Wyatt. He's a You-tuber and was hoping to live stream his chase on his channel that afternoon. This is the inside of his vehicle. He has $20,000 tied up in equipment inside and out. Myself, I have a phone and a laptop.

Meantime, here's a dashing selfie of me enjoying the 80 degree weather and dew point of 69 degrees in Knoxville, Illinois. As mellow as I appear, I'm getting anxious for storm development. Things should start happening in an hour or so. Tic toc.

It's 4:00pm. and storms have yet to form, but that was indicated by morning models. That said, we began to notice agitated cumulus, indicating the CAP was weakening with active storms expected by 6:00pm, Should storms initiate, rapid growth was expected and they could go severe within 1/2 hour.

Not long after the MD was issued, my phone vibrated sending out an alert that SPC had issued a tornado watch for the area Nick and I depicted more than 24 hours earlier, (encompassing my counties along and south of I-80. Additionally, there was a high risk of tornadoes indicated with severe hail at least 2 inches. The risk of EF2+ tornadoes was shown as moderate at the bottom of the graphic. Showtime was drawing close.

Roughly an hour later, storms broke the cap and rapidly began to intensify. We got on this storm near Woodhall which eventually produced a tornado warning near Kewanee. You can see it has a nice appendage extending south to Ontario indicating it was a rotating mesocyclone, a supercell.

We ended up facing 3 severe thunderstorm warnings but could not get the mid-level rotation to reach the ground. Thus, no tornado for Terry Tuesday. However, we got some excellent structure and a lowering base with strong inflow. The second image shows the inflow entering the meso from the left and right. It was trying!

In all honesty, I think we played the storms as well as we could have. Despite all the media hype about tornadoes, the threat underperformed locally. While it was disappointing as chasers we did not see what we came to see, the adventure and anticipation was worth the time we spent, and the distance we traveled. March 10th, not a bad start to the severe weather season, if I do say so myself. Chasing tornadoes is like investing in the lottery, if you don't play, you can't win. Tuesday I was a loser, but a happy one just the same. Roll weather...TS

By the way, I just saw some startling snow numbers on the GFS this weekend and again next week. I haven't had a chance to dig into the reality of that, being on the road all day. I will have more to say in my next post. Colder weather is definitely in the cards!